Bologna
Attack+22%
Defense risk−15%
Our take
Bologna are slight favourites.
Bologna are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Bologna have 2.9 days of rest, Monza 2.8 and have to travel 202 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel202 kmRest days2.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Bologna54%
Draw24%
Monza22%
Bologna64%
Draw21%
Monza14%
Bologna54%
Draw24%
Monza22%
Bologna46%
Draw26%
Monza28%
Bologna55%
Draw23%
Monza22%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
16°COvercast
- Precipitation 7%
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 78%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Bologna and Monza. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Monza
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Monza
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Monza
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Monza
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Monza
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Monza
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
BolognaMonza
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
35
AttackIn forecast
34
48
DefenceIn forecast
26
32
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonza
Attack−2%
Defense risk−8%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
BolognaMonza
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
57%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.57
ShotsContext
13.71
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
28%
On target shareContext
43%
8.43
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
65%
Box shareContext
74%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.83
OffsidesContext
3.83
13.71
Shots allowedContext
13.14
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.14
4.14
BlocksContext
2.71
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
438
PassesContext
376
380
Accurate passesContext
306
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.57
12.71
FoulsContext
11.86
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
11.90
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
31%
On target shareContext
41%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
63%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.78
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.80
BlocksContext
2.90
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
60%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
437
PassesContext
407
378
Accurate passesContext
341
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.62
12.20
FoulsContext
10.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
DLDWL
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,628 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Monza
DLWLW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel202 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Monza |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct | 2.8Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,628 km | 273 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
3A. Theate
16N. Casale
36M. Darmian
33Juan Miranda
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
20N. Zortea
28N. Cambiaghi
10F. Bernardeschi
91R. Piccoli
Monza
Last XI · not confirmed
1N. Törnqvist(G)
44A. Carboni
2S. Goglichidze
60E. Kouadio
7Ricardo Mangas
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Foe-Ondoa
19S. Birindelli
46J. Robinson
47Dany Mota
9Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
No reported absences
Monza
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monza+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Monza · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 1–3 H | L 1–4 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Bologna wins2 draws1 Monza wins
Goals per game1.17 – 0.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 18 Jan 2025Bologna3–1Monza
- 22 Sep 2024Monza1–2Bologna
- 13 Apr 2024Bologna0–0Monza
- 28 Sep 2023Monza0–0Bologna
- 12 Feb 2023Bologna0–1Monza
- 31 Oct 2022Monza1–2Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 4.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 86% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Bologna | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.00 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 86% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 86% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.17 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.42 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Bologna | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.10 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Bologna7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Monza7 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Monza10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
