Juventus vs Napoli – 1 Nov 2026

Serie A Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 19:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 8th · 11 pts · 7 played DLWDL

VS— Compare

Napoli 9th · 10 pts · 7 played LWDWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Napoli. Napoli are without A. Buongiorno. Juventus have 4 days of rest, Napoli 4 and have to travel 711 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel711 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 3

Juventus46%

Draw27%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.13

Juventus46%

Draw26%

Napoli27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Juventus45%

Draw27%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.13

Juventus38%

Draw28%

Napoli34%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.27

Juventus46%

Draw26%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.19

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

12°CLight rain

Precipitation 12%
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 96%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Juventus

Napoli

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

57 AttackIn forecast 61

76 DefenceIn forecast 70

74 Form indexContext 44

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack−18%

Defense risk+18%

Napoli

Attack−25%

Defense risk+16%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Juventus

Napoli

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

0.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

86% Scored inContext 86%

43% Clean sheetsContext 43%

16.71 ShotsContext 16.71

5.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.86 Shots in the boxContext 11.86

53% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 9%

3.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

7.29 Shots allowedContext 15.57

2.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

1.83 BlocksContext 4.40

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

67% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

547 PassesContext 510

480 Accurate passesContext 443

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.57 FoulsContext 8.57

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.86

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 0.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

0.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.70 ShotsContext 14.70

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

35% On target shareContext 34%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

60% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.90

8.20 Shots allowedContext 16.20

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

1.89 BlocksContext 5.13

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

68% Save rateContext 69%

57% PossessionIn forecast 53%

532 PassesContext 516

466 Accurate passesContext 450

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.60 FoulsContext 9.00

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus WWDWL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,254 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Napoli WDWLL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel711 km1,326 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Venezia0–12.3 xPts
L13 OctA · Villarreal1–31.1 xPts
W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct	4Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	711 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,254 km	1,326 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	4	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct

25G. Vicario(G)

2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz

17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González

9R. Kolo Muani

Napoli Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Venezia (A) 0–1, 17 Oct

1A. Meret(G)

5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 22G. Di Lorenzo

8S. McTominay 23Giovane

20L. Lucca

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus No reported absences

Napoli Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes

DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.65 Def −11.8%

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus+0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Napoli-0.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Napoli · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Juventus	Napoli
Frosinone	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Juventus wins2 draws6 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%

25 Jan 2026Juventus3–0Napoli
7 Dec 2025Napoli2–1Juventus
25 Jan 2025Napoli2–1Juventus
21 Sep 2024Juventus0–0Napoli
3 Mar 2024Napoli2–1Juventus
8 Dec 2023Juventus1–0Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.43
Conceded per game	1.14	1.00
Match goals	2.43	2.43	2.66
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	29%	43%	50%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	43%	54%
Clean sheets	43%	43%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Juventus	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	2.90	2.30	2.66
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	4.60
Corners conceded	3.14	6.00
Match total	11.14	10.60	9.38
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	100% 5/5
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	1.29	0.86
Opponent cards	2.29	1.29
Match total	3.58	2.15	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	0% 0/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	0% 0/7

	Juventus	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	7.67	3.88
Corners conceded	3.22	5.38
Match total	10.89	9.26	9.38
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.60
Match total	3.40	2.70	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.