Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

Serie A Gameweek 10 Mon, Nov 2 · 17:30 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 13th · 8 pts · 7 played DWLDL

VS— Compare

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sassuolo are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sassuolo. Sassuolo have 6 days of rest, Fiorentina 3.9 and have to travel 113 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel113 kmRest days6 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sassuolo43%

Draw25%

Fiorentina32%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.39

Sassuolo40%

Draw27%

Fiorentina33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.26

Sassuolo43%

Draw25%

Fiorentina32%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.39

Sassuolo36%

Draw25%

Fiorentina39%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.55

Sassuolo44%

Draw24%

Fiorentina32%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.52

Over 2.5 59% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

13°CDrizzle

Precipitation 15%
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 73%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Sassuolo

Fiorentina

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

41 AttackIn forecast 42

32 DefenceIn forecast 34

32 Form indexContext 20

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack+11%

Defense risk−4%

Fiorentina

Attack+14%

Defense risk−6%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Fiorentina

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

100% Scored inContext 71%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.86 ShotsContext 16.43

6.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43

41% On target shareContext 33%

9.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.14

60% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.83

15.71 Shots allowedContext 12.14

6.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.43

4.43 BlocksContext 2.00

4.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

70% Save rateContext 55%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

446 PassesContext 390

387 Accurate passesContext 328

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.54

9.71 FoulsContext 11.00

11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 12.43

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

90% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.30 ShotsContext 14.90

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

41% On target shareContext 32%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

62% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.89

15.20 Shots allowedContext 13.90

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.80 BlocksContext 2.40

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

67% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 47%

458 PassesContext 388

397 Accurate passesContext 324

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.68

9.80 FoulsContext 11.10

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo DWLDL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km346 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Frosinone2–41.3 xPts
D11 OctH · AC Milan1–11.2 xPts
L18 SepA · Monza1–21.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Juventus3–21.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Bologna2–20.9 xPts

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel113 km496 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2026-2027, 27 Oct	3.9Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	346 km	496 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Frosinone (A) 2–4, 16 Oct

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 15D. Ćaleta-Car 26C. Odenthal 20I. Van der Brempt

50D. Bakola 18N. Matić

45A. Laurienté 42K. Thorstvedt 10D. Berardi

94S. Esposito

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo No reported absences

Fiorentina No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fiorentina+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Fiorentina · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Fiorentina
Frosinone	L 2–4 A	L 0–3 H
Torino	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Sassuolo wins2 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.75 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 13%

26 Apr 2026Fiorentina0–0Sassuolo
6 Dec 2025Sassuolo3–1Fiorentina
28 Apr 2024Fiorentina5–1Sassuolo
6 Jan 2024Sassuolo1–0Fiorentina
2 Jun 2023Sassuolo1–3Fiorentina
7 Jan 2023Fiorentina2–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	1.14
Conceded per game	2.00	2.43
Match goals	3.71	3.57	3.05
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	86%	86%	59%
Over 3.5	43%	43%
Both teams scored	100%	71%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	29%
Games	7	7

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	2.00	1.80
Match goals	3.50	2.90	3.05
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	90%	60%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	5.29
Corners conceded	6.14	3.86
Match total	10.43	9.15	9.38
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.14
Match total	3.29	4.14	3.43
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.50
Corners conceded	5.90	3.90
Match total	9.60	8.40	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.70
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	3.80	3.50	3.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.