Atalanta
Attack+9%
Defense risk−25%
Our take
Atalanta are slight favourites.
Atalanta are the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Parma. Atalanta have 4 days of rest, Parma 5.1 and have to travel 112 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel112 kmRest days4 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atalanta57%
Draw24%
Parma19%
Atalanta62%
Draw22%
Parma16%
Atalanta57%
Draw24%
Parma19%
Atalanta49%
Draw26%
Parma24%
Atalanta59%
Draw22%
Parma19%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
10°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 20%
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 93%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Atalanta and Parma. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Atalanta
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Parma
−1.07
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.70xG against1.77
-
Alert
Parma
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Atalanta
−0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against1.63
-
Alert
Atalanta
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Parma
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Parma
−1.07
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.70xG against1.77
-
Alert
Atalanta
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Atalanta
−0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against1.63
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AtalantaParma
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
48
AttackIn forecast
20
45
DefenceIn forecast
33
21
Form indexContext
23
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack−2%
Defense risk+3%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AtalantaParma
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
86%
Scored inContext
43%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.14
ShotsContext
10.57
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
60%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
18.00
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
5.17
BlocksContext
4.29
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
76%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
475
PassesContext
394
420
Accurate passesContext
324
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.29
FoulsContext
9.86
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
15.43
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
10.30
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
33%
On target shareContext
31%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
63%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.11
16.60
Shots allowedContext
16.20
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.33
BlocksContext
4.50
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
78%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
472
PassesContext
367
414
Accurate passesContext
300
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.80
FoulsContext
10.50
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
LLLWL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km494 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Parma
DLWLL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel112 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Oct | 5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 112 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 494 km | 737 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Last XI · not confirmed
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
47L. Bernasconi
23S. Kolašinac
31T. Kristensen
16R. Bellanova
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
10L. Samardžić
11J. Rowe
90N. Krstović
17C. De Ketelaere
Parma
Last XI · not confirmed
40E. Corvi(G)
15E. Delprato
37Mariano Troilo
34Diego Carlos
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
19E. Touré
80G. Fabbian
9D. Romero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
No reported absences
Parma
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Parma+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Parma · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Atalanta wins1 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2026Atalanta4–0Parma
- 30 Aug 2025Parma1–1Atalanta
- 25 May 2025Atalanta2–3Parma
- 23 Nov 2024Parma1–3Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.43 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Atalanta | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.40 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 8.43 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 1.57 | 3.28 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Atalanta | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.70 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Atalanta7 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Parma7 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
