AC Milan
Attack−24%
Defense risk+84%
Our take
Inter are slight favourites.
Inter are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 66). AC Milan come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. AC Milan have 3.1 days of rest, Inter 3.1 and have to travel 0 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel0 kmRest days3.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d4 · 3
AC Milan29%
Draw23%
Inter48%
AC Milan30%
Draw27%
Inter43%
AC Milan29%
Draw23%
Inter48%
AC Milan22%
Draw21%
Inter57%
AC Milan33%
Draw23%
Inter44%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
13°CClear
- Precipitation 12%
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 87%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AC Milan and Inter. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Inter
+1.37
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.73xG against1.36
-
Trend
Inter
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Inter
2.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
Attack
-
Insight
Inter
+1.37
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.73xG against1.36
-
Trend
Inter
2.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Inter
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
AC Milan
+0.70
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.27
-
Trend
AC Milan
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
AC Milan
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AC Milan
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Inter
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
AC MilanInter
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
72
AttackIn forecast
91
69
DefenceIn forecast
73
74
Form indexContext
76
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack−14%
Defense risk+25%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
AC MilanInter
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
2.67
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.29
ShotsContext
21.57
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.29
38%
On target shareContext
34%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
15.14
67%
Box shareContext
70%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.83
9.57
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
2.67
BlocksContext
2.71
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
75%
Save rateContext
68%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
583
PassesContext
616
522
Accurate passesContext
556
90%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.20
9.29
FoulsContext
8.14
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.43
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
2.73
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.20
ShotsContext
21.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.80
69%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.88
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.44
BlocksContext
2.80
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
78%
Save rateContext
64%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
556
PassesContext
586
498
Accurate passesContext
529
90%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.90
FoulsContext
8.70
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AC Milan
LWDWW
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km2,656 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Inter
WDWLW
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km490 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AC Milan |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 48 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct | 3.1Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,656 km | 490 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AC Milan
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
14L. Modrić
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
12A. Rabiot
Inter
Last XI · not confirmed
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AC Milan
No reported absences
Inter
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- AC Milan+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Inter+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
AC Milan · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Inter · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 AC Milan wins2 draws3 Inter wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.40
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 8 Mar 2026AC Milan1–0Inter
- 23 Nov 2025Inter0–1AC Milan
- 2 Feb 2025AC Milan1–1Inter
- 22 Sep 2024Inter1–2AC Milan
- 22 Apr 2024AC Milan1–2Inter
- 16 Sep 2023Inter5–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AC Milan | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.29 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AC Milan | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.60 | 3.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AC Milan | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 6.14 | 9.29 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 3.57 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| AC Milan | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 9.20 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AC Milan7 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Inter7 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
3
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
