Lecce vs Genoa – 1 Nov 2026

Serie A Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 17:00 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 12th · 9 pts · 7 played LWLLW

VS— Compare

Genoa 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LDLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lecce are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lecce. Lecce have 3 days of rest, Genoa 3.9 and have to travel 881 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel881 kmRest days3 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lecce43%

Draw28%

Genoa29%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.14

Lecce43%

Draw27%

Genoa30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Lecce43%

Draw28%

Genoa29%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.14

Lecce36%

Draw28%

Genoa36%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.28

Lecce45%

Draw26%

Genoa30%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.29

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

16°CDrizzle

Precipitation 22%
Wind 20 km/h
Humidity 65%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lecce

Genoa

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

36 AttackIn forecast 23

30 DefenceIn forecast 44

35 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack+3%

Defense risk−22%

Genoa

Attack+15%

Defense risk−13%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Lecce

Genoa

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

57% Scored inContext 57%

29% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.14 ShotsContext 11.14

4.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.86

42% On target shareContext 26%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.57

64% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 6%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.29

14.86 Shots allowedContext 15.00

6.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

2.83 BlocksContext 6.17

4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

69% Save rateContext 61%

40% PossessionIn forecast 45%

346 PassesContext 380

271 Accurate passesContext 306

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.56

12.86 FoulsContext 9.43

9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

60% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.40 ShotsContext 10.60

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60

43% On target shareContext 25%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

68% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 6%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.67 BlocksContext 5.38

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

69% Save rateContext 60%

37% PossessionIn forecast 48%

312 PassesContext 395

239 Accurate passesContext 322

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.10 FoulsContext 9.40

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce LWLLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km860 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Udinese3–00.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Bologna1–21.1 xPts
L20 SepA · AC Milan0–30.5 xPts
W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts

Genoa LDLWL

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel881 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 OctA · AS Roma0–20.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Fiorentina2–11.3 xPts
L20 SepA · Parma1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Oct	3.9Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	881 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	860 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Udinese (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

14Y. Maleh 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly

7A. Fatah 69W. Geubbels 11K. N’Dri

Genoa Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs AS Roma (A) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

31D. Puczka 32M. Frendrup 71S. Wiafe 77M. Ellertsson

92S. El Shaarawy 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce No reported absences

Genoa

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Venturino

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Genoa+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.67

Genoa · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Genoa
AS Roma	L 0–4 H	L 0–2 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Lecce wins2 draws2 Genoa wins

Goals per game0.67 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 33%

24 May 2026Lecce1–0Genoa
23 Aug 2025Genoa0–0Lecce
14 Mar 2025Genoa2–1Lecce
5 Jan 2025Lecce0–0Genoa
28 Jan 2024Genoa2–1Lecce
22 Sep 2023Lecce1–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	0.71
Conceded per game	1.71	1.86
Match goals	3.00	2.57	2.57
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	43%	47%
Over 3.5	29%	14%
Both teams scored	29%	57%	52%
Clean sheets	29%	0%
Failed to score	43%	43%
Games	7	7

	Lecce	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.60
Conceded per game	1.50	1.60
Match goals	2.80	2.20	2.57
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	4.43
Corners conceded	3.29	4.57
Match total	7.86	9.00	9.38
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	3.00
Opponent cards	0.86	1.86
Match total	2.72	4.86	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	57% 4/7

	Lecce	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.40
Corners conceded	3.80	4.10
Match total	8.00	8.50	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.30
Opponent cards	0.80	1.80
Match total	2.80	4.10	3.43
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.