Benfica vs Lech Poznan

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 20:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Lech Poznan 36th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica are clear favourites.

Benfica are the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica have 3 days of rest, Lech Poznan 14.1 and have to travel 2,514 km.

Away travel2,514 kmRest days3 · 14.1Matches / 14d2 · 0

Benfica84%

Draw10%

Lech Poznan6%

Expected goals 3.41 – 0.89

Benfica75%

Draw16%

Lech Poznan9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Benfica84%

Draw10%

Lech Poznan6%

Expected goals 3.41 – 0.89

Benfica78%

Draw13%

Lech Poznan9%

Expected goals 3.04 – 1.00

Benfica82%

Draw11%

Lech Poznan6%

Expected goals 3.19 – 0.85

Over 2.5 80% Both score 57% Likeliest score 3–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Benfica 10+ Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Benfica

Lech Poznan

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

81 AttackIn forecast 35

81 DefenceIn forecast 23

85 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack+19%

Defense risk+4%

Lech Poznan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Lech Poznan

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 4.00

1.62 xGVia Att/Def —

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+1.38 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 0%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

18.50 ShotsContext 13.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

30% On target shareContext 33%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

63% Box shareContext 41%

16% ConversionContext 0%

2.50 OffsidesContext —

14.50 Shots allowedContext 19.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.00

2.00 BlocksContext 3.50

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

91% Save rateContext 56%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

477 PassesContext 433

424 Accurate passesContext 353

89% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.38 Team ratingContext 6.05

10.50 FoulsContext 6.00

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

4.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 3.01

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +1.34

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

18.13 ShotsContext 14.71

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

32% On target shareContext 41%

13.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

71% Box shareContext 56%

15% ConversionContext 14%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.25

9.88 Shots allowedContext 13.57

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.14

2.56 BlocksContext 3.10

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

75% Save rateContext 56%

60% PossessionIn forecast 53%

538 PassesContext 443

472 Accurate passesContext 367

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.16 Team ratingContext 6.57

11.00 FoulsContext 10.00

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica WWLWW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,890 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

Lech Poznan LL

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,514 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L15 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.9 xPts
L17 SepA · Crystal Palace0–40.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Lech Poznan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 2 Nov	14.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,514 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,890 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3	20.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

Lech Poznan Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (H) 0–4, 15 Oct

1M. Lis(G)

15M. Gurgul 27W. Mońka 72M. Skrzypczak 2Joel Pereira

43A. Kozubal 5K. Berggren

14E. Bengtsson 9M. Ishak 10J. Wålemark

77L. Palma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica No reported absences

Lech Poznan No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lech Poznan+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

Lech Poznan · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Lech Poznan	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.50	4.00
Match goals	3.50	4.00	4.30
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	80%
Over 3.5	50%	100%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	2	2

	Benfica	Lech Poznan	Forecast
Scored per game	2.70	2.38
Conceded per game	0.80	1.75
Match goals	3.50	4.13	4.30
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	80%	88%	80%
Over 3.5	60%	75%
Both teams scored	60%	25%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	38%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Lech Poznan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.50
Corners conceded	7.50	5.50
Match total	12.00	10.00	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	4.00	1.50
Opponent cards	0.50	1.00
Match total	4.50	2.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Benfica	Lech Poznan	League
Corners
Corners won	6.38	5.50
Corners conceded	4.25	4.50
Match total	10.63	10.00	9.76
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.40
Match total	4.60	4.20	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.