UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Tue, Jan 19 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
FC Porto 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Slavia Praha 31st · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,037 kmRest days2.2 · 42Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
FC Porto—%
Draw—%
Slavia Praha—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Porto)

Forecast from 4 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for FC Porto and Slavia Praha. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

FC PortoSlavia Praha
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
74 AttackIn forecast 41
79 DefenceIn forecast 40
84 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—
Defense risk—

Slavia Praha

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC PortoSlavia Praha
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
0.55 xGVia Att/Def —
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
8.00 ShotsContext 17.50
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
31% On target shareContext 37%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
75% Box shareContext 66%
13% ConversionContext 6%
— OffsidesContext 3.00
18.50 Shots allowedContext 19.00
8.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
3.00 BlocksContext 5.50
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
71% Save rateContext 57%
40% PossessionIn forecast 46%
373 PassesContext 334
303 Accurate passesContext 253
81% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.62 Team ratingContext 6.43
12.50 FoulsContext 11.00
15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.09
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.39
90% Scored inContext 40%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.60 ShotsContext 12.60
6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
39% On target shareContext 30%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
72% Box shareContext 61%
15% ConversionContext 6%
3.25 OffsidesContext 3.75
11.90 Shots allowedContext 16.90
3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.70
2.80 BlocksContext 4.60
2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.10
74% Save rateContext 66%
52% PossessionIn forecast 46%
416 PassesContext 329
351 Accurate passesContext 248
84% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.59
13.60 FoulsContext 15.70
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto
Rest2.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km600 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
  • W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts
Slavia Praha
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,037 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 25 · 0 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • L13 OctA · Sabah FA0–21.4 xPts
  • L10 SepH · Lens2–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Porto Slavia Praha
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan42UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,037 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways600 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one4.88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt
11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz
Slavia Praha Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sabah FA (A) 0–2, 13 Oct
35J. Markovič(G)
27T. Vlček 6C. N'Guessan 4D. Zima 3T. Holeš
23M. Sadílek 16D. Moses
10D. Šturm 17L. Provod 20E. Ayaosi
25T. Chorý

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Porto Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Slavia Praha Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00
Slavia Praha · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

FC PortoSlavia PrahaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 2.502.50
Match goals 3.503.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games22
FC PortoSlavia PrahaForecast
Scored per game 2.201.00
Conceded per game 0.902.50
Match goals 3.103.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%50%
Games102

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC PortoSlavia PrahaLeague
Corners
Corners won1.506.00
Corners conceded5.006.50
Match total6.5012.509.71
Over 8.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Over 9.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards3.502.00
Match total5.503.503.80
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
FC PortoSlavia PrahaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.704.00
Corners conceded3.905.89
Match total9.609.899.71
Over 8.550% 5/1078% 7/9
Over 9.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1022% 2/9
Cards
Cards1.202.10
Opponent cards2.402.40
Match total3.604.503.80
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

FC Porto2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 76-90
Slavia Praha2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
3 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
5 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 2 76-90
Slavia Praha10 games · scored 7 · conceded 24
1 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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