Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Tue, Jan 19 · 20:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 2nd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Borussia Dortmund 18th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel650 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Aston Villa—%

Draw—%

Borussia Dortmund—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Birmingham)

Forecast from 4 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Aston Villa 6 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Aston Villa

Borussia Dortmund

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

83 AttackIn forecast 69

78 DefenceIn forecast 80

84 Form indexContext 61

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Borussia Dortmund

4.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+1.76 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

20.50 ShotsContext 13.50

10.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

49% On target shareContext 37%

13.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

63% Box shareContext 58%

22% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.50 BlocksContext 3.00

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

82% Save rateContext 78%

41% PossessionIn forecast 52%

363 PassesContext 549

315 Accurate passesContext 483

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.48 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.00 FoulsContext 11.50

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.60 ShotsContext 14.70

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

35% On target shareContext 39%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

65% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.63

15.60 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

4.22 BlocksContext 2.78

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

73% Save rateContext 77%

46% PossessionIn forecast 54%

404 PassesContext 530

340 Accurate passesContext 454

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.50 FoulsContext 10.90

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa LWDWW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Borussia Dortmund WWDLD

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel650 km148 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 16 Jan	3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	650 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	148 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 5	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1Z. Suzuki(G)

29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash

35João Gomes 8B. Kamara

10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward

11N. Jackson

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1G. Kobel(G)

4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson

14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri

9S. Guirassy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 6.00
Conceded: 0.00

Borussia Dortmund · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Borussia Dortmund
Scored per game	4.50	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	5.50	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%
Over 3.5	100%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Aston Villa	Borussia Dortmund
Scored per game	1.80	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	3.20	2.80
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	9.00
Corners conceded	5.50	5.50
Match total	12.50	14.50	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Aston Villa	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.80
Corners conceded	5.00	4.50
Match total	9.00	10.30	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	2.80	1.50
Match total	4.60	3.70	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.