UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Tue, Jan 19 · 17:45 Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø
Bodo/Glimt 24th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Atletico Madrid 15th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel3,186 kmRest days40.9 · 2.1Matches / 14d0 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bodo/Glimt—%
Draw—%
Atletico Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bodø)

Forecast from 4 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bodo/Glimt and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bodo/GlimtAtletico Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 81
61 AttackIn forecast 82
64 DefenceIn forecast 87
— Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—
Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bodo/GlimtAtletico Madrid
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.21
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
— Goals minus xGContext +0.29
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
7.00 ShotsContext 9.00
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
21% On target shareContext 39%
4.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.00
65% Box shareContext 49%
7% ConversionContext 17%
1.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
17.00 Shots allowedContext 10.50
8.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.00 BlocksContext 2.50
5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
63% Save rateContext 75%
41% PossessionIn forecast 57%
453 PassesContext 545
376 Accurate passesContext 472
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.54 Team ratingContext 7.01
7.50 FoulsContext 10.50
6.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
0.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.68 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
80% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.60 ShotsContext 16.10
5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
44% On target shareContext 37%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
73% Box shareContext 58%
20% ConversionContext 12%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.20
18.70 Shots allowedContext 10.20
6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
5.88 BlocksContext 2.90
4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
68% Save rateContext 71%
47% PossessionIn forecast 60%
504 PassesContext 588
422 Accurate passesContext 517
84% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.09 Team ratingContext 7.04
10.44 FoulsContext 11.30
9.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bodo/Glimt
Rest40.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W14 OctH · Borussia Dortmund1–01.2 xPts
  • L10 SepA · Bayern München0–50.4 xPts
Atletico Madrid
Rest2.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel3,186 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bodo/Glimt Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match40.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec2.1La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km3,186 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 01 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one8.14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bodo/Glimt Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 1–0, 14 Oct
12N. Haikin(G)
15F. Bjørkan 5H. Aleesami 6J. Gundersen 20F. Sjøvold
10J. Hauge 19S. Fet 7P. Berg 8S. Auklend
9A. Helmersen 11O. Blomberg
Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bodo/Glimt Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bodo/Glimt · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
Atletico Madrid · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Bodo/Glimt wins0 draws0 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 28 Jan 2026Atletico Madrid1–2Bodo/Glimt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bodo/GlimtAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 0.501.50
Conceded per game 2.501.00
Match goals 3.002.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 0%50%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Bodo/GlimtAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.172.00
Conceded per game 1.831.00
Match goals 4.003.00
Over 1.5 83%90%
Over 2.5 83%80%
Over 3.5 67%30%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 33%40%
Failed to score 17%10%
Games610

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bodo/GlimtAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won3.503.50
Corners conceded7.505.00
Match total11.008.509.71
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards1.001.50
Match total2.003.003.80
Over 3.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
Bodo/GlimtAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won3.895.00
Corners conceded7.224.25
Match total11.119.259.71
Over 8.578% 7/950% 4/8
Over 9.544% 4/950% 4/8
Over 10.544% 4/950% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.502.20
Opponent cards2.101.70
Match total3.603.903.80
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bodo/Glimt2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 76-90
Atletico Madrid2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Bodo/Glimt10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
0-15
4 2 16-30
5 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
5 3 61-75
3 10 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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