UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Tue, Jan 19 · 20:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Lask Linz 33rd · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,672 kmRest days2.2 · 41Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
Lask Linz—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 4 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and Lask Linz. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridLask Linz
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 37
89 AttackIn forecast 48
85 DefenceIn forecast 34
91 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lask Linz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridLask Linz
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.39
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.54
— Goals minus xGContext +0.11
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.00 ShotsContext 11.50
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
50% On target shareContext 30%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
78% Box shareContext 64%
19% ConversionContext 13%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
17.50 Shots allowedContext 22.00
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.00 BlocksContext 7.00
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
79% Save rateContext 31%
41% PossessionIn forecast 44%
405 PassesContext 368
345 Accurate passesContext 298
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.52
10.00 FoulsContext 11.00
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 5.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.90 ShotsContext 17.10
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
43% On target shareContext 32%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.80
71% Box shareContext 63%
16% ConversionContext 14%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.20 Shots allowedContext 12.10
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30
3.80 BlocksContext 3.40
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.88
75% Save rateContext 48%
50% PossessionIn forecast 43%
501 PassesContext 353
446 Accurate passesContext 280
89% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.89
8.90 FoulsContext 11.00
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest2.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km831 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
Lask Linz
Rest41 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,672 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L14 OctH · Liverpool3–60.9 xPts
  • L8 SepA · AEK Athens FC0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid Lask Linz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.2La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan41UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,672 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways831 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one4.88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Lask Linz Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 3–6, 14 Oct
1L. Jungwirth(G)
25Y. Dibango 16A. Andrade 43Alemão 4X. Mbuyamba 20Kasper Jørgensen
27C. Lang 18A. Schöpf 6M. Bogarde 9K. Daněk
7S. Adeniran

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lask Linz Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Lask Linz · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridLask LinzForecast
Scored per game 3.001.50
Conceded per game 2.003.50
Match goals 5.005.00
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Real MadridLask LinzForecast
Scored per game 2.702.00
Conceded per game 1.202.75
Match goals 3.904.75
Over 1.5 80%75%
Over 2.5 80%75%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%50%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridLask LinzLeague
Corners
Corners won6.503.00
Corners conceded8.009.00
Match total14.5012.009.71
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 10.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards3.000.50
Match total4.002.003.80
Over 3.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
Real MadridLask LinzLeague
Corners
Corners won6.304.67
Corners conceded5.006.33
Match total11.3011.009.71
Over 8.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 9.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 10.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.201.60
Opponent cards2.501.30
Match total4.702.903.80
Over 3.580% 8/1020% 2/10
Over 4.550% 5/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
Lask Linz2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
Lask Linz10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 5 16-30
4 2 31-45
6 2 46-60
5 3 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

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