UEFA Champions League Matchday 7 Wed, Jan 20 · 20:00 Lyse Arena, Stavanger
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel837 kmRest days43.1 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Viking—%
Draw—%
PSV Eindhoven—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Stavanger)

Forecast from 5 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Viking and PSV Eindhoven. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

VikingPSV Eindhoven
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
16 Current StrengthIn forecast 71
18 AttackIn forecast 60
23 DefenceIn forecast 64
— Form indexContext 32
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Viking

Attack—
Defense risk—

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VikingPSV Eindhoven
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
8.00 ShotsContext 9.50
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
44% On target shareContext 37%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
71% Box shareContext 51%
25% ConversionContext 5%
— OffsidesContext 3.00
20.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
8.00 BlocksContext 4.50
— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
63% Save rateContext 88%
37% PossessionIn forecast 56%
299 PassesContext 430
211 Accurate passesContext 367
71% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.44 Team ratingContext 6.68
12.00 FoulsContext 13.00
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60
2.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
— xGVia Att/Def 2.27
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
— Goals minus xGContext +0.33
100% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 10%
10.67 ShotsContext 17.30
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
41% On target shareContext 38%
7.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
70% Box shareContext 67%
17% ConversionContext 15%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.22
16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.70
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
5.17 BlocksContext 3.56
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
68% Save rateContext 71%
44% PossessionIn forecast 58%
359 PassesContext 526
269 Accurate passesContext 464
75% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.95
13.33 FoulsContext 10.50
10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 6 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Viking
Rest43.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 1 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • D13 OctH · Bayern München3–30.1 xPts
  • L9 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–30.3 xPts
PSV Eindhoven
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel837 km287 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
  • L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Viking PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match43.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Dec4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km837 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km287 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 01 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one73

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Viking Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Bayern München (H) 3–3, 13 Oct
1A. Østbø(G)
28K. Haugen 25H. Falchener 6G. Stensness 5H. Heggheim
7K. Askildsen 8J. Bell 16H. Bjørdal
10Z. Tripić 22E. Botheim 20P. Christiansen
PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano
35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man
21S. Mijnans

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Viking Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PSV Eindhoven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Viking · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
3.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Viking2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
PSV Eindhoven2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Viking6 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2 3 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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