AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 20:00 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 20th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

VS— Compare

Juventus 1st · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Juventus are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar have 5 days of rest, Juventus 4 and have to travel 868 km.

Away travel868 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3

AZ Alkmaar34%

Draw25%

Juventus41%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.63

AZ Alkmaar32%

Draw27%

Juventus41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

AZ Alkmaar34%

Draw25%

Juventus41%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.63

AZ Alkmaar27%

Draw24%

Juventus49%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.83

AZ Alkmaar33%

Draw26%

Juventus41%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.53

Over 2.5 60% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Juventus

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

52 AttackIn forecast 57

49 DefenceIn forecast 76

43 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack−37%

Defense risk+33%

Juventus

Attack−1%

Defense risk+9%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Juventus

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

2.07 xGVia Att/Def —

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-1.07 Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.50 ShotsContext 16.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

32% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

64% Box shareContext 80%

8% ConversionContext 21%

— OffsidesContext —

13.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.00 BlocksContext 1.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

88% Save rateContext 80%

57% PossessionIn forecast 51%

538 PassesContext 525

451 Accurate passesContext 463

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.20

13.00 FoulsContext 14.00

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.90 ShotsContext 16.70

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

37% On target shareContext 35%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

65% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.75

9.70 Shots allowedContext 8.20

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

2.89 BlocksContext 1.89

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

68% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 57%

543 PassesContext 532

466 Accurate passesContext 466

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.40 FoulsContext 12.60

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar LWLWD

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km60 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Juventus WWDWL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel868 km2,254 km in 14d

Schedule load32%Moderate

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct	4Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	868 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	60 km	2,254 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct

25G. Vicario(G)

2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz

17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González

9R. Kolo Muani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar No reported absences

Juventus No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Juventus+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Juventus · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.50
Conceded per game	1.00	0.50
Match goals	2.00	4.00	3.10
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	AZ Alkmaar	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.90	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.00
Corners conceded	5.00	1.00
Match total	10.00	8.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	3.50	1.50
Match total	6.50	3.00	3.76
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2

	AZ Alkmaar	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	7.30	7.67
Corners conceded	3.60	3.22
Match total	10.90	10.89	9.76
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	3.60	3.40	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.