Fenerbahce vs Slavia Praha

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 17:45 Chobani Stadium, Istanbul

Fenerbahce 28th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

VS— Compare

Slavia Praha 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce are clear favourites.

Fenerbahce are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce are without J. Oosterwolde and Marco Asensio. Slavia Praha are without Š. Chaloupek and T. Chorý. Fenerbahce have 3 days of rest, Slavia Praha 7 and have to travel 1,511 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,511 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Fenerbahce65%

Draw18%

Slavia Praha17%

Expected goals 2.54 – 1.24

Fenerbahce58%

Draw23%

Slavia Praha18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.96

Fenerbahce65%

Draw18%

Slavia Praha17%

Expected goals 2.51 – 1.23

Fenerbahce57%

Draw21%

Slavia Praha23%

Expected goals 2.27 – 1.39

Fenerbahce64%

Draw19%

Slavia Praha17%

Expected goals 2.51 – 1.24

Over 2.5 73% Both score 66% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Istanbul)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 0%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 74%

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 60

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Slavia Praha

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

75 AttackIn forecast 41

53 DefenceIn forecast 40

65 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack−6%

Defense risk+13%

Slavia Praha

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Slavia Praha

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.00 ShotsContext 17.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

35% On target shareContext 37%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

64% Box shareContext 66%

4% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

14.00 Shots allowedContext 19.00

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

3.00 BlocksContext 5.50

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

50% Save rateContext 57%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

456 PassesContext 334

397 Accurate passesContext 253

87% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.39 Team ratingContext 6.43

9.00 FoulsContext 11.00

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

2.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

80% Scored inContext 40%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.11 ShotsContext 12.60

6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

41% On target shareContext 30%

11.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

69% Box shareContext 61%

17% ConversionContext 6%

2.33 OffsidesContext 3.75

14.33 Shots allowedContext 16.90

6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.70

3.56 BlocksContext 4.60

4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.10

74% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

429 PassesContext 329

369 Accurate passesContext 248

86% Pass accuracyContext 75%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.59

12.89 FoulsContext 15.70

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce DWWLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km7,231 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Slavia Praha LL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,511 km5,893 km in 14d

Schedule load30%Moderate

Form 25 · 0 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L13 OctA · Sabah FA0–21.4 xPts
L10 SepH · Lens2–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Slavia Praha
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Süper Lig 2026-2027, 17 Oct	7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,511 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	7,231 km	5,893 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	15.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté

70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci

9R. Lukaku

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Slavia Praha Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sabah FA (A) 0–2, 13 Oct

35J. Markovič(G)

27T. Vlček 6C. N'Guessan 4D. Zima 3T. Holeš

23M. Sadílek 16D. Moses

10D. Šturm 17L. Provod 20E. Ayaosi

25T. Chorý

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −11.7% · Defence line −13.6% of weighted minutes

DEF J. Oosterwolde Starter 6.78 Def −10.4%
ATT Marco Asensio Starter 7.16 Att −11.7%
DEF M. Müldür Rotation 6.64 Def −3.2%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Yandaş, A. Diouf, A. Fall

Slavia Praha Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals

Attack line −11.3% · Defence line −11.6% of weighted minutes

DEF Š. Chaloupek Starter 6.74 Def −9.4%
ATT T. Chorý Starter 6.30 Att −11.0%
DEF I. Ogbu Rotation 5.95 Def −1.9%
DEF D. Jurásek Depth 5.66 Def −0.3%
ATT I. Schranz Depth 6.48 Att −0.3%

4 without recent minutes (no impact): H. Kante, O. Kolář, A. Ouanda, E. Piták

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Slavia Praha+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Slavia Praha · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Fenerbahce wins0 draws0 Slavia Praha wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

28 Nov 2024Slavia Praha1–2Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Slavia Praha	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.00
Conceded per game	3.50	2.50
Match goals	4.00	3.50	3.78
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	73%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Fenerbahce	Slavia Praha	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	2.50
Match goals	3.60	3.50	3.78
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	73%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	66%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Slavia Praha	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	6.50
Match total	10.00	12.50	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.50	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	Fenerbahce	Slavia Praha	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	4.00
Corners conceded	4.22	5.89
Match total	9.44	9.89	9.71
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.10
Opponent cards	1.40	2.40
Match total	3.30	4.50	3.80
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 60 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.64

Red cards0.23league 0.14

Cards 5+33%league 36%

Fouls22.3league 23.0

Penalties0.33league 0.28

Home wins50%league 58%

Fenerbahce1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D27 Nov 25H · Ferencvarosi TC1–15

Slavia Praha1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D22 Oct 25A · Atalanta0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.