Lille vs Galatasaray – 21 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Wed, Oct 21 · 17:45 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 34th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Galatasaray 35th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille are slight favourites.

Galatasaray are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lille. Lille are without A. Ueda. Galatasaray are without L. Torreira and Rafael Leão. Lille have 3.9 days of rest, Galatasaray 4.2 and have to travel 2,249 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel2,249 kmRest days3.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Lille42%

Draw26%

Galatasaray33%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.39

Lille38%

Draw27%

Galatasaray34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Lille41%

Draw25%

Galatasaray33%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.39

Lille34%

Draw26%

Galatasaray40%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.56

Lille42%

Draw26%

Galatasaray32%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.34

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

10°COvercast

Precipitation 25%
Wind 26 km/h
Humidity 84%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lille

Galatasaray

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

42 AttackIn forecast 57

60 DefenceIn forecast 55

39 Form indexContext 59

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack−10%

Defense risk+17%

Galatasaray

Attack−22%

Defense risk+15%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Lille

Galatasaray

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50

0.62 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.27

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

5.00 ShotsContext 7.50

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

20% On target shareContext 40%

2.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

46% Box shareContext 70%

20% ConversionContext 13%

3.50 OffsidesContext —

18.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.00

5.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

54% Save rateContext 44%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

426 PassesContext 402

368 Accurate passesContext 343

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.50 Team ratingContext 6.25

10.00 FoulsContext 11.00

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.97

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.50 ShotsContext 19.20

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

42% On target shareContext 34%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.20

63% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 10%

3.11 OffsidesContext 3.43

14.80 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78

4.00 BlocksContext 3.56

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

69% Save rateContext 64%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

480 PassesContext 460

417 Accurate passesContext 397

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.90 FoulsContext 11.60

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille WLWLD

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km501 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · Stade Brestois 291–11.8 xPts
L13 OctA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts
W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts

Galatasaray WLWLW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,249 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Genclerbirligi1–02.2 xPts
L13 OctH · Barcelona1–40.7 xPts
W9 OctH · Kasimpasa3–12.3 xPts
L19 SepA · Trabzonspor0–41.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Kocaelispor1–02.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Galatasaray
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 17 Oct	4.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,249 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	501 km	704 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 1–1, 17 Oct

12O. Gill(G)

15R. Perraud 23T. Nianzou 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi

17N. Mukau 21B. André

7D. Bakwa 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

9O. Giroud

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Galatasaray Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Genclerbirligi (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1U. Çakır(G)

17E. Elmalı 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai

8Gabriel Sara 99M. Lemina

53B. Yılmaz 83A. Batrakov 10L. Sané

45V. Osimhen

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −22.1% · Defence line −5.9% of weighted minutes

ATT A. Ueda Starter 6.99 Att −18.1%
DEF Tiago Santos Rotation 6.86 Def −4.4%
MID E. Mbappé Rotation 6.79 Att −2.1% Def −1.5%
ATT H. Igamane Rotation 7.07 Att −1.9%

Galatasaray Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −17.8% · Defence line −11.1% of weighted minutes

MID L. Torreira Starter 6.96 Att −6.6% Def −6.9%
ATT Rafael Leão Starter 6.80 Att −11.2%
DEF W. Singo Rotation 6.78 Def −2.5%
DEF K. Karataş Rotation 6.56 Def −1.1%
DEF K. Ayhan Depth 6.50 Def −0.3%
DEF A. Ünyay Depth 6.44 Def −0.3%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): Can Armando Güner, E. Aydin, A. Yilmaz

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Galatasaray-0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Galatasaray · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Galatasaray	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	3.00	3.50
Match goals	4.00	4.50	2.97
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	100%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Lille	Galatasaray	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.50	3.70	2.97
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	80%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Galatasaray	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.50
Corners conceded	5.00	3.50
Match total	10.00	6.00	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.00
Match total	4.00	3.50	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	Lille	Galatasaray	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.40
Corners conceded	4.50	3.20
Match total	8.50	9.60	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.80
Match total	3.40	3.80	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.