FC Porto vs Napoli – 4 Nov 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 30th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Napoli 32nd · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto are slight favourites.

FC Porto are the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 63). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Napoli. FC Porto have 4 days of rest, Napoli 3 and have to travel 1,915 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,915 kmRest days4 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

FC Porto55%

Draw23%

Napoli22%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.15

FC Porto57%

Draw24%

Napoli20%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98

FC Porto55%

Draw23%

Napoli22%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.15

FC Porto47%

Draw25%

Napoli28%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.29

FC Porto55%

Draw24%

Napoli22%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.12

Over 2.5 59% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

16°CMainly clear

Precipitation 10%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 38%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

FC Porto

Napoli

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

74 AttackIn forecast 61

80 DefenceIn forecast 70

84 Form indexContext 44

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack−24%

Defense risk+35%

Napoli

Attack−30%

Defense risk+37%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

FC Porto

Napoli

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.55 xGVia Att/Def —

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.00 ShotsContext 8.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

31% On target shareContext 38%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

75% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 6%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

18.50 Shots allowedContext 21.50

8.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

3.00 BlocksContext 6.50

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

71% Save rateContext 58%

40% PossessionIn forecast 45%

373 PassesContext 444

303 Accurate passesContext 375

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.38

12.50 FoulsContext 13.50

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.60 ShotsContext 14.70

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

39% On target shareContext 34%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

72% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 8%

3.25 OffsidesContext 2.90

11.90 Shots allowedContext 16.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.80 BlocksContext 5.13

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

74% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 53%

416 PassesContext 516

351 Accurate passesContext 450

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.60 FoulsContext 9.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto WWWWL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km85 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts

Napoli WDWLL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,915 km2,749 km in 14d

Schedule load48%High

Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Venezia0–12.3 xPts
L13 OctA · Villarreal1–31.1 xPts
W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 48
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct	3Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,915 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	85 km	2,749 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3.6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

Napoli Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Venezia (A) 0–1, 17 Oct

1A. Meret(G)

5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 22G. Di Lorenzo

8S. McTominay 23Giovane

20L. Lucca

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto No reported absences

Napoli No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Napoli+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Napoli · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	2.00
Match goals	3.50	2.50	3.06
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	FC Porto	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.20
Conceded per game	0.90	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.30	3.06
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	1.50	2.50
Corners conceded	5.00	5.00
Match total	6.50	7.50	9.71
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	3.50	1.50
Match total	5.50	4.00	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	FC Porto	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	3.88
Corners conceded	3.90	5.38
Match total	9.60	9.26	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.10
Opponent cards	2.40	1.60
Match total	3.60	2.70	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.