Lens vs Como – 4 Nov 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Wed, Nov 4 · 20:00 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 19th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

VS— Compare

Como 12th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Como are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Lens have 5 days of rest, Como 3.4 and have to travel 692 km.

Away travel692 kmRest days5 · 3.4Matches / 14d2 · 3

Lens38%

Draw24%

Como38%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.72

Lens38%

Draw27%

Como35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

Lens38%

Draw24%

Como38%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.72

Lens30%

Draw23%

Como47%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.93

Lens38%

Draw24%

Como38%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.64

Over 2.5 67% Both score 68% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

Forecast from 20 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lens

Como

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

63 AttackIn forecast 72

53 DefenceIn forecast 67

51 Form indexContext 50

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack−22%

Defense risk+39%

Como

Attack−7%

Defense risk+19%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Lens

Como

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

23.50 ShotsContext 12.50

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

30% On target shareContext 44%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

53% Box shareContext 58%

6% ConversionContext 24%

1.00 OffsidesContext —

14.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.00 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

60% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

493 PassesContext 542

421 Accurate passesContext 490

85% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.58 Team ratingContext 6.78

8.00 FoulsContext 13.50

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.40 ShotsContext 19.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

37% On target shareContext 34%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 12.10

70% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.56 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.30 Shots allowedContext 13.60

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.44 BlocksContext 2.70

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

71% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 60%

474 PassesContext 571

405 Accurate passesContext 513

85% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.80 FoulsContext 9.70

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens DLWLW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km55 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts

Como WLDLW

Rest3.4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel692 km273 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Como
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Oct	3.4Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	692 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	55 km	273 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	4	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

40R. Risser(G)

20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio

22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar

7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

Como Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali

9A. Douvikas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens No reported absences

Como No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Como+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Como · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Como	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	3.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	3.50	5.00	3.43
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	100%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	68%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Lens	Como	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	2.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	3.60	3.40	3.43
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	68%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Como	League
Corners
Corners won	7.50	1.00
Corners conceded	4.50	5.00
Match total	12.00	6.00	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	0.50	2.50
Match total	2.00	5.00	3.80
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2

	Lens	Como	League
Corners
Corners won	6.78	5.70
Corners conceded	5.89	4.40
Match total	12.67	10.10	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.60
Opponent cards	1.30	2.70
Match total	3.40	4.30	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.