St. Truiden vs OH Leuven

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 1 · 15:00 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond

St. Truiden 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LWLLL

VS— Compare

OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LLDWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

St. Truiden are slight favourites.

St. Truiden are the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. St. Truiden have 7 days of rest, OH Leuven 7.9 and have to travel.

Rest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

St. Truiden56%

Draw23%

OH Leuven21%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.12

St. Truiden57%

Draw24%

OH Leuven19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

St. Truiden56%

Draw23%

OH Leuven21%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.12

St. Truiden48%

Draw25%

OH Leuven27%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.25

St. Truiden56%

Draw23%

OH Leuven21%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.13

Over 2.5 59% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (St.-Trond)

No weather data yet

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak St. Truiden 3 Losses in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

St. Truiden

OH Leuven

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

35 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

37 AttackIn forecast 17

32 DefenceIn forecast 30

11 Form indexContext 25

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—

Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. Truiden

OH Leuven

1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

63% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 13%

17.00 ShotsContext 12.75

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.38

27% On target shareContext 19%

11.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

68% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 6%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.63 Shots allowedContext 14.75

4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.00 BlocksContext 5.14

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

69% Save rateContext 63%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

520 PassesContext 418

437 Accurate passesContext 329

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.38 FoulsContext 11.25

9.63 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.00 ShotsContext 12.70

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60

27% On target shareContext 21%

11.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

68% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 6%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.63 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.10 BlocksContext 4.78

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

69% Save rateContext 66%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

520 PassesContext 402

437 Accurate passesContext 318

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.80 FoulsContext 10.90

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden LWLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · KV Mechelen3–41.5 xPts
L20 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–21.9 xPts
L12 SepA · SK Beveren0–21.7 xPts
W5 SepH · RAAL La Louvière4–02.1 xPts
L2 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.3 xPts

OH Leuven LLDWD

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	St. Truiden	OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs KV Mechelen (A) 3–4, 11 Oct

16L. Kokubo(G)

3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 4K. Takai 60R. Vanwesemael

8A. Sissako 14R. Merlen

10I. Sebaoui 71R. Araki 38Kaito Matsuzawa

9S. Baždar

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct

13K. Vroman(G)

34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence

99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil

21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

St. Truiden No reported absences

OH Leuven No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
OH Leuven+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

OH Leuven · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	St. Truiden	OH Leuven
SK Beveren	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 A
RAAL La Louvière	W 4–0 H	W 2–0 H
Union St. Gilloise	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 A
Cercle Brugge	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 St. Truiden wins1 draws1 OH Leuven wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

18 Jan 2026St. Truiden1–0OH Leuven
23 Nov 2025OH Leuven1–2St. Truiden
9 Dec 2023St. Truiden1–1OH Leuven
22 Oct 2023OH Leuven4–0St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	St. Truiden	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	0.75
Conceded per game	2.00	1.75
Match goals	3.88	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	13%	13%
Failed to score	38%	38%
Games	8	8

	St. Truiden	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.90
Conceded per game	2.00	1.40
Match goals	3.80	2.30	3.08
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	St. Truiden	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	3.25
Corners conceded	3.63	8.25
Match total	9.01	11.50	10.01
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.13
Opponent cards	1.25	1.63
Match total	3.25	3.76	3.36
Over 3.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	25% 2/8

	St. Truiden	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.60
Corners conceded	3.50	8.20
Match total	9.00	11.80	10.01
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.30	1.50
Match total	3.50	3.20	3.36
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.