Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 1 · 18:15 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
RAAL La Louvière 16th · 4 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Charleroi are clear favourites.

Charleroi are the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Charleroi. Charleroi have 8.2 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 8 and have to travel 20 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel20 kmRest days8.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Charleroi70%
Draw18%
RAAL La Louvière12%
Expected goals 2.41 – 0.91
Charleroi60%
Draw23%
RAAL La Louvière17%
Expected goals 1.94 – 0.92
Charleroi70%
Draw18%
RAAL La Louvière12%
Expected goals 2.41 – 0.91
Charleroi63%
Draw21%
RAAL La Louvière17%
Expected goals 2.15 – 1.02
Charleroi69%
Draw18%
RAAL La Louvière13%
Expected goals 2.42 – 0.95
Over 2.5 64% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
7°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 20%
  • Wind 9 km/h
  • Humidity 89%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CharleroiRAAL La Louvière
38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 17
43 AttackIn forecast 15
50 DefenceIn forecast 15
80 Form indexContext 16
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CharleroiRAAL La Louvière
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25
1.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.86
0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.28
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
100% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 13%
16.75 ShotsContext 11.38
5.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63
34% On target shareContext 32%
11.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.43
69% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 9%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.43
10.88 Shots allowedContext 16.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.57 BlocksContext 3.88
2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88
79% Save rateContext 58%
57% PossessionIn forecast 37%
496 PassesContext 335
421 Accurate passesContext 257
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.58
10.13 FoulsContext 12.13
13.38 Fouls sufferedContext 9.25
1.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.10
0.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.20
100% Scored inContext 70%
50% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.80 ShotsContext 11.60
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
34% On target shareContext 34%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
70% Box shareContext 62%
11% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.22
10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.70
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
4.50 BlocksContext 3.60
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
83% Save rateContext 59%
58% PossessionIn forecast 39%
484 PassesContext 334
411 Accurate passesContext 257
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.08 Team ratingContext 6.66
10.10 FoulsContext 11.10
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts
RAAL La Louvière
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel20 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • L10 OctH · Club Brugge KV1–40.6 xPts
  • L19 SepA · OH Leuven0–21.3 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Kortrijk3–01.8 xPts
  • L5 SepA · St. Truiden0–40.7 xPts
  • D29 AugH · KV Mechelen2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Charleroi RAAL La Louvière
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Oct8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km20 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways180 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one5.96.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
RAAL La Louvière Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Club Brugge KV (H) 1–4, 10 Oct
21M. Peano(G)
18S. Delos 25D. Lamego 99Y. Okou 33P. Nkoa 3N. Gillot
23J. Ito 10M. Wade 29M. Courcoul
11M. Ubandoma 9E. Filet

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Charleroi No reported absences
RAAL La Louvière No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Charleroi+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
2.50
Conceded
1.50
RAAL La Louvière · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-0-4
Scored
0.25
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentCharleroiRAAL La Louvière
Standard Liege W 1–0 A L 0–2 A
Kortrijk W 3–1 A W 3–0 H
KV Mechelen W 2–0 H D 2–2 H
OH Leuven W 3–1 H L 0–2 A
Points12 of 12 · 3.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Charleroi wins1 draws1 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 100%
  • 29 Nov 2025Charleroi0–0RAAL La Louvière
  • 10 Aug 2025RAAL La Louvière1–0Charleroi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

CharleroiRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 2.001.00
Conceded per game 0.882.25
Match goals 2.883.25 3.32
Over 1.5 63%100%
Over 2.5 50%75% 64%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 50%50% 55%
Clean sheets 50%13%
Failed to score 0%38%
Games88
CharleroiRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 1.601.60
Conceded per game 1.002.40
Match goals 2.604.00 3.32
Over 1.5 60%100%
Over 2.5 40%80% 64%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 40%60% 55%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CharleroiRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won5.503.71
Corners conceded4.386.00
Match total9.889.7110.01
Over 8.563% 5/857% 4/7
Over 9.563% 5/843% 3/7
Over 10.563% 5/829% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.132.50
Opponent cards1.381.38
Match total2.513.883.36
Over 3.525% 2/863% 5/8
Over 4.50% 0/838% 3/8
CharleroiRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won6.503.89
Corners conceded4.705.67
Match total11.209.5610.01
Over 8.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 9.570% 7/1044% 4/9
Over 10.570% 7/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.402.20
Opponent cards1.401.50
Match total2.803.703.36
Over 3.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
RAAL La Louvière8 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
3 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 4 61-75
1 4 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
3 1 0-15
1 16-30
3 7 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Zulte Waregem Club Brugge KV Oct 3019:45 KV Mechelen Genk Oct 3115:00 Standard Liege Kortrijk Oct 3117:15 Anderlecht KVC Westerlo Oct 3119:45 SK Beveren Union St. Gilloise Oct 3119:45 Cercle Brugge Antwerp Nov 112:30 St. Truiden OH Leuven Nov 115:00 Lommel United Gent Nov 117:30 Charleroi RAAL La Louvière Nov 118:15