Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 31 · 19:45 Freethielstadion, Beveren
SK Beveren 11th · 9 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. SK Beveren have 7 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 6.1 and have to travel 41 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel41 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
SK Beveren15%
Draw21%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Expected goals 0.97 – 2.16
SK Beveren18%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Expected goals 0.96 – 1.87
SK Beveren15%
Draw21%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Expected goals 0.97 – 2.16
SK Beveren11%
Draw18%
Union St. Gilloise71%
Expected goals 0.87 – 2.42
SK Beveren15%
Draw21%
Union St. Gilloise64%
Expected goals 0.97 – 2.16
Over 2.5 61% Both score 56% Likeliest score 0–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Beveren)
8°CClear
  • Precipitation 18%
  • Wind 4 km/h
  • Humidity 89%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SK BeverenUnion St. Gilloise
25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70
25 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
18 AttackIn forecast 62
20 DefenceIn forecast 74
25 Form indexContext 73
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SK Beveren

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SK BeverenUnion St. Gilloise
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +1.43
63% Scored inContext 88%
38% Clean sheetsContext 63%
10.25 ShotsContext 16.88
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.13
32% On target shareContext 42%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
69% Box shareContext 78%
10% ConversionContext 16%
1.88 OffsidesContext 2.75
15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.13
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75
3.50 BlocksContext 4.13
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
71% Save rateContext 81%
51% PossessionIn forecast 53%
469 PassesContext 458
382 Accurate passesContext 377
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.14
8.75 FoulsContext 11.38
10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.90
63% Scored inContext 90%
38% Clean sheetsContext 60%
10.25 ShotsContext 17.30
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
32% On target shareContext 41%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.20
69% Box shareContext 75%
10% ConversionContext 13%
1.88 OffsidesContext 2.78
15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
3.50 BlocksContext 3.90
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
71% Save rateContext 75%
51% PossessionIn forecast 51%
469 PassesContext 461
382 Accurate passesContext 379
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.12
8.75 FoulsContext 11.90
10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SK Beveren
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 6 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • L9 OctH · Lommel United1–31.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Kortrijk0–11.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · St. Truiden2–01.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · OH Leuven3–01.7 xPts
  • L28 AugA · Genk0–40.7 xPts
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel41 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SK Beveren Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Oct6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km41 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways96 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one65

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SK Beveren Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lommel United (H) 1–3, 9 Oct
1J. Schenk(G)
4C. Janssens 31B. Godeau 35Y. Gomis 25C. Konaté
44C. Conde 18S. Dewaele
17J. Margaritha 22C. Brüls 5C. Lokesa
9M. Kaboré
Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SK Beveren No reported absences
Union St. Gilloise No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • SK Beveren+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SK Beveren · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.75
Union St. Gilloise · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentSK BeverenUnion St. Gilloise
Lommel United L 1–3 H W 5–0 H
St. Truiden W 2–0 H W 3–0 A
OH Leuven W 3–0 H D 1–1 H
Zulte Waregem L 0–4 A D 0–0 H
Anderlecht W 1–0 H W 3–0 H
Antwerp L 1–2 A W 2–0 A
Points9 of 18 · 1.50 per game14 of 18 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SK BeverenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.002.75
Conceded per game 1.750.50
Match goals 2.753.25 3.14
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 63%63% 61%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 25%38% 56%
Clean sheets 38%63%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88
SK BeverenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.002.30
Conceded per game 1.750.70
Match goals 2.753.00 3.14
Over 1.5 75%90%
Over 2.5 63%60% 61%
Over 3.5 38%30%
Both teams scored 25%40% 56%
Clean sheets 38%60%
Failed to score 38%10%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SK BeverenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.005.88
Corners conceded4.383.25
Match total9.389.1310.01
Over 8.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.001.88
Opponent cards1.251.88
Match total3.253.763.36
Over 3.538% 3/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
SK BeverenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.80
Corners conceded4.383.90
Match total9.388.7010.01
Over 8.550% 4/850% 5/10
Over 9.538% 3/850% 5/10
Over 10.538% 3/840% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.002.00
Opponent cards1.251.90
Match total3.253.903.36
Over 3.538% 3/860% 6/10
Over 4.525% 2/830% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SK Beveren8 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
SK Beveren8 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Zulte Waregem Club Brugge KV Oct 3019:45 KV Mechelen Genk Oct 3115:00 Standard Liege Kortrijk Oct 3117:15 Anderlecht KVC Westerlo Oct 3119:45 SK Beveren Union St. Gilloise Oct 3119:45 Cercle Brugge Antwerp Nov 112:30 St. Truiden OH Leuven Nov 115:00 Lommel United Gent Nov 117:30 Charleroi RAAL La Louvière Nov 118:15