Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 31 · 19:45 Lotto Park, Brussel
Anderlecht 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
KVC Westerlo 6th · 13 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Anderlecht are slight favourites.

Anderlecht are the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for KVC Westerlo. Anderlecht have 6.1 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7 and have to travel 48 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel48 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Anderlecht51%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo25%
Expected goals 1.89 – 1.27
Anderlecht51%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo24%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07
Anderlecht51%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo25%
Expected goals 1.89 – 1.27
Anderlecht43%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo32%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.42
Anderlecht51%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo25%
Expected goals 1.84 – 1.25
Over 2.5 61% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussel)
13°COvercast
  • Precipitation 18%
  • Wind 12 km/h
  • Humidity 85%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Anderlecht and KVC Westerlo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AnderlechtKVC Westerlo
43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33
43 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
37 AttackIn forecast 42
52 DefenceIn forecast 32
59 Form indexContext 83
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Anderlecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AnderlechtKVC Westerlo
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.13
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.37
0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +1.13
63% Scored inContext 88%
50% Clean sheetsContext 25%
15.00 ShotsContext 14.88
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38
32% On target shareContext 36%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.63
61% Box shareContext 72%
8% ConversionContext 17%
1.43 OffsidesContext 1.17
9.88 Shots allowedContext 14.50
3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.13
2.00 BlocksContext 2.38
2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
76% Save rateContext 59%
62% PossessionIn forecast 51%
560 PassesContext 454
482 Accurate passesContext 378
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.81
12.38 FoulsContext 13.38
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.89
70% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.88 ShotsContext 15.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
38% On target shareContext 32%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
61% Box shareContext 68%
8% ConversionContext 14%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.14
11.25 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
1.90 BlocksContext 2.70
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
81% Save rateContext 61%
60% PossessionIn forecast 52%
533 PassesContext 459
459 Accurate passesContext 384
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.77
12.90 FoulsContext 12.90
12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Anderlecht
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,717 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Dinamo Zagreb0–11.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
  • W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
KVC Westerlo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel48 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 13 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +6.9 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · Antwerp5–11.8 xPts
  • W20 SepA · St. Truiden2–00.9 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Standard Liege4–21.4 xPts
  • W5 SepA · KV Mechelen4–01.0 xPts
  • D30 AugH · Zulte Waregem2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Anderlecht KVC Westerlo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 25 Oct7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,717 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 40 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one4.96.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Anderlecht Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Dinamo Zagreb (A) 0–1, 15 Oct
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler
9M. Cvetković
KVC Westerlo Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Antwerp (H) 5–1, 11 Oct
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega 4A. Lapage 5Seiji Kimura 2L. Flø
14C. Sandra 45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito 13I. Sakamoto 39T. Van den Keybus
9N. Bassette

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Anderlecht No reported absences
KVC Westerlo No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Anderlecht+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Anderlecht · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25
KVC Westerlo · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAnderlechtKVC Westerlo
Zulte Waregem W 3–0 H D 2–2 H
KV Mechelen W 1–0 A W 4–0 A
Genk D 0–0 H L 2–3 A
Union St. Gilloise L 0–3 A L 1–5 H
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Anderlecht wins0 draws1 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%
  • 7 Dec 2025KVC Westerlo4–0Anderlecht
  • 27 Jul 2025Anderlecht5–2KVC Westerlo
  • 1 Dec 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Anderlecht
  • 20 Aug 2023Anderlecht2–1KVC Westerlo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AnderlechtKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 1.132.50
Conceded per game 0.752.13
Match goals 1.884.63 3.16
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%88% 61%
Over 3.5 0%88%
Both teams scored 25%63% 61%
Clean sheets 50%25%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88
AnderlechtKVC WesterloForecast
Scored per game 1.402.10
Conceded per game 0.701.90
Match goals 2.104.00 3.16
Over 1.5 60%90%
Over 2.5 60%80% 61%
Over 3.5 0%70%
Both teams scored 20%60% 61%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AnderlechtKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won6.633.50
Corners conceded3.135.75
Match total9.769.2510.01
Over 8.563% 5/875% 6/8
Over 9.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.131.25
Opponent cards1.381.63
Match total3.512.883.36
Over 3.550% 4/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/838% 3/8
AnderlechtKVC WesterloLeague
Corners
Corners won5.403.90
Corners conceded3.805.30
Match total9.209.2010.01
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.510% 1/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.201.40
Opponent cards1.801.80
Match total4.003.203.36
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Anderlecht8 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
KVC Westerlo8 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
6 0-15
1 4 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 4 76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 2 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
2 2 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
7 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 5 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Zulte Waregem Club Brugge KV Oct 3019:45 KV Mechelen Genk Oct 3115:00 Standard Liege Kortrijk Oct 3117:15 Anderlecht KVC Westerlo Oct 3119:45 SK Beveren Union St. Gilloise Oct 3119:45 Cercle Brugge Antwerp Nov 112:30 St. Truiden OH Leuven Nov 115:00 Lommel United Gent Nov 117:30 Charleroi RAAL La Louvière Nov 118:15