Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29

Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 31 · 19:45 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 7th · 11 pts · 7 played WDLWW

VS— Compare

Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played WLLWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lorient are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Stade Brestois 29. Lorient have 6.1 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 8 and have to travel 109 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel109 kmRest days6.1 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Lorient42%

Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2933%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.36

Lorient44%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2929%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Lorient42%

Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2933%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.36

Lorient34%

Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2940%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.52

Lorient42%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 2933%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.41

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

10°CMainly clear

Precipitation 10%
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 81%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Lorient 6 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Lorient

Stade Brestois 29

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

28 AttackIn forecast 47

45 DefenceIn forecast 36

69 Form indexContext 49

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack+3%

Defense risk+1%

Stade Brestois 29

Attack−4%

Defense risk−14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Lorient

Stade Brestois 29

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 2.55

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.69

86% Scored inContext 86%

57% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.86 ShotsContext 17.14

3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86

35% On target shareContext 34%

6.71 Shots in the boxContext 11.29

70% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.25 OffsidesContext 2.40

13.86 Shots allowedContext 11.71

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43

4.71 BlocksContext 2.57

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

83% Save rateContext 76%

46% PossessionIn forecast 46%

482 PassesContext 408

408 Accurate passesContext 333

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

9.29 FoulsContext 14.14

15.14 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29

1.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

80% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.80 ShotsContext 16.10

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

35% On target shareContext 33%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

65% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.43

13.60 Shots allowedContext 12.30

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.78 BlocksContext 3.30

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

81% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 46%

458 PassesContext 414

390 Accurate passesContext 340

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.10 FoulsContext 12.80

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient WDLWW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km427 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctH · Monaco1–01.2 xPts
W10 OctH · Paris FC1–01.4 xPts
L19 SepA · Le Mans1–21.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Toulouse2–21.6 xPts
W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts

Stade Brestois 29 WLLWD

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel109 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected

D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct	8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	109 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	427 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Monaco (H) 1–0, 18 Oct

38Y. Mvogo(G)

95S. Touré 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 20D. Sylla

33Gabin Bernardeau 17J. Makengo

18I. Baldé

Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct

1E. Selvik(G)

2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé

19L. Ajorque

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient No reported absences

Stade Brestois 29 No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29
Le Mans	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Toulouse	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Lorient wins1 draws4 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.75 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

7 Feb 2026Stade Brestois 292–0Lorient
19 Oct 2025Lorient3–3Stade Brestois 29
31 Mar 2024Lorient0–1Stade Brestois 29
20 Dec 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Lorient
7 May 2023Lorient2–1Stade Brestois 29
9 Oct 2022Stade Brestois 291–2Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.86
Conceded per game	0.86	1.43
Match goals	1.86	3.29	2.92
Over 1.5	43%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	71%	56%
Over 3.5	14%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	86%	59%
Clean sheets	57%	0%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.90	2.92
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.86
Corners conceded	5.17	4.00
Match total	8.17	8.86	9.63
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.14	1.29
Opponent cards	2.29	1.71
Match total	3.43	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	14% 1/7

	Lorient	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.11	4.70
Corners conceded	5.67	4.60
Match total	8.78	9.30	9.63
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	3.30	2.40	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.