Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Fri, Oct 30 · 18:00 Stade Océane, Le Havre
LE Havre 18th · 2 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre have 5.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4.9 and have to travel 178 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel178 kmRest days5.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
LE Havre5%
Draw10%
Paris Saint Germain84%
Expected goals 0.87 – 3.43
LE Havre7%
Draw14%
Paris Saint Germain79%
Expected goals 0.67 – 2.66
LE Havre5%
Draw10%
Paris Saint Germain84%
Expected goals 0.87 – 3.43
LE Havre3%
Draw7%
Paris Saint Germain89%
Expected goals 0.78 – 3.85
LE Havre6%
Draw11%
Paris Saint Germain83%
Expected goals 0.85 – 3.25
Over 2.5 80% Both score 57% Likeliest score 0–3
EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
16°CClear
  • Precipitation 31%
  • Wind 19 km/h
  • Humidity 82%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for LE Havre and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LE HavreParis Saint Germain
20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90
20 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
20 AttackIn forecast 91
22 DefenceIn forecast 83
6 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

LE Havre

Attack−36%
Defense risk+100%

Paris Saint Germain

Attack+22%
Defense risk−22%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

LE HavreParis Saint Germain
0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 2.65
1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
-0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.65
57% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
15.57 ShotsContext 20.57
4.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.14
30% On target shareContext 35%
10.29 Shots in the boxContext 11.71
66% Box shareContext 56%
5% ConversionContext 10%
1.71 OffsidesContext 3.20
12.86 Shots allowedContext 10.86
4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
3.67 BlocksContext 2.17
3.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
70% Save rateContext 83%
50% PossessionIn forecast 68%
408 PassesContext 708
340 Accurate passesContext 637
83% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.62 Team ratingContext 7.03
14.57 FoulsContext 5.71
15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.29 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.95 xGVia Att/Def 2.37
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
60% Scored inContext 100%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.70 ShotsContext 21.50
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
32% On target shareContext 36%
9.22 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
67% Box shareContext 56%
6% ConversionContext 12%
2.10 OffsidesContext 3.33
13.10 Shots allowedContext 11.90
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.78 BlocksContext 3.22
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
75% Save rateContext 78%
47% PossessionIn forecast 67%
381 PassesContext 702
312 Accurate passesContext 632
82% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.70 Team ratingContext 7.07
14.70 FoulsContext 7.00
14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

LE Havre
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,597 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Auxerre1–31.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Lille0–10.6 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Toulouse2–30.9 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Angers0–01.6 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Stade Brestois 291–21.4 xPts
Paris Saint Germain
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel178 km794 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
LE Havre Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct4.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km178 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,597 km794 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one8.94.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

LE Havre Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Auxerre (H) 1–3, 18 Oct
93G. Gallon(G)
5A. Touba 6J. Mwanga 20D. Ouziad
7M. Richardson 26S. Ebonog 14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta 9J. Maja 30S. Nakamura
Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
LE Havre No reported absences
Paris Saint Germain No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • LE Havre+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

LE Havre · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.50
Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLE HavreParis Saint Germain
Lille L 0–1 A D 2–2 A
Stade Brestois 29 L 1–2 H W 1–0 A
Monaco L 0–1 H L 1–2 H
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 LE Havre wins1 draws5 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.83 – 2.50 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 28 Feb 2026LE Havre0–1Paris Saint Germain
  • 22 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain3–0LE Havre
  • 19 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain2–1LE Havre
  • 16 Aug 2024LE Havre1–4Paris Saint Germain
  • 27 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain3–3LE Havre
  • 3 Dec 2023LE Havre0–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LE HavreParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 0.712.00
Conceded per game 1.571.29
Match goals 2.293.29 4.30
Over 1.5 57%86%
Over 2.5 43%86% 80%
Over 3.5 29%57%
Both teams scored 57%86% 57%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 43%0%
Games77
LE HavreParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 0.802.50
Conceded per game 1.301.40
Match goals 2.103.90 4.30
Over 1.5 60%90%
Over 2.5 30%90% 80%
Over 3.5 20%60%
Both teams scored 50%90% 57%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LE HavreParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won5.714.75
Corners conceded4.863.25
Match total10.578.009.63
Over 8.5100% 7/750% 2/4
Over 9.586% 6/725% 1/4
Over 10.543% 3/70% 0/4
Cards
Cards1.861.00
Opponent cards1.572.43
Match total3.433.433.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.529% 2/729% 2/7
LE HavreParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won5.115.57
Corners conceded5.674.14
Match total10.789.719.63
Over 8.589% 8/971% 5/7
Over 9.578% 7/943% 3/7
Over 10.544% 4/929% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.101.00
Opponent cards1.702.30
Match total3.803.303.47
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

LE Havre7 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
3 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
3 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
4 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
LE Havre Paris Saint Germain Oct 3018:00 Lille Lens Oct 3020:05 Nice Rennes Oct 3116:15 Lyon Angers Oct 3119:45 Lorient Stade Brestois 29 Oct 3119:45 Estac Troyes Le Mans Oct 3119:45 Strasbourg Auxerre Nov 114:00 Paris FC Monaco Nov 116:15 Marseille Toulouse Nov 119:45