Coventry vs Sunderland

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:00 The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands

Coventry 17th · 6 pts · 7 played LLWWL

VS— Compare

Sunderland 20th · 4 pts · 7 played DLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Sunderland are the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 51). Coventry have 7 days of rest, Sunderland 5.9 and have to travel 278 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel278 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 3

Coventry40%

Draw25%

Sunderland35%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.49

Coventry40%

Draw27%

Sunderland33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.26

Coventry40%

Draw25%

Sunderland35%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.49

Coventry33%

Draw25%

Sunderland43%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.67

Coventry40%

Draw25%

Sunderland34%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.43

Over 2.5 60% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)

12°CDrizzle

Precipitation 23%
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 97%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Coventry

Sunderland

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

47 AttackIn forecast 62

59 DefenceIn forecast 59

64 Form indexContext 56

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Coventry

Attack+16%

Defense risk−11%

Sunderland

Attack+16%

Defense risk−24%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Coventry

Sunderland

0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.04

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.65

43% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

10.29 ShotsContext 11.57

3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

32% On target shareContext 35%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

64% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.83

17.43 Shots allowedContext 14.57

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

6.83 BlocksContext 4.29

2.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

46% Save rateContext 46%

38% PossessionIn forecast 48%

323 PassesContext 400

247 Accurate passesContext 316

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.62

11.00 FoulsContext 11.43

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14

1.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.56

60% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.70 ShotsContext 14.40

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

33% On target shareContext 30%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

62% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 8%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.33

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

5.78 BlocksContext 3.90

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

49% Save rateContext 52%

45% PossessionIn forecast 49%

380 PassesContext 395

304 Accurate passesContext 316

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.71

9.70 FoulsContext 12.70

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Coventry LLWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km276 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L19 OctA · Tottenham1–31.0 xPts
W12 OctH · Newcastle4–11.3 xPts
W19 SepA · Nottingham Forest1–00.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Brighton0–51.1 xPts
L5 SepA · Manchester City0–10.3 xPts

Sunderland WLLWL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel278 km3,402 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Coventry	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct	5.9Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	278 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	276 km	3,402 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Coventry Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Tottenham (A) 1–3, 19 Oct

19C. Rushworth(G)

3J. Dasilva 2E. Pinnock 4B. Thomas 27M. van Ewijk

6M. Grimes 8C. Yirenkyi

23S. Thomas-Asante 5J. Rudoni 7T. Sakamoto

49S. Chérif

Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume

57T. Tuterov

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Coventry No reported absences

Sunderland No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Coventry+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sunderland+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Coventry · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Sunderland · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Coventry	Sunderland
Brighton	L 0–5 H	L 0–2 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 A	L 3–5 A
Arsenal	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 H
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Coventry wins3 draws0 Sunderland wins

Goals per game1.83 – 0.67 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%

15 Mar 2025Coventry3–0Sunderland
9 Nov 2024Sunderland2–2Coventry
23 Dec 2023Sunderland0–3Coventry
26 Aug 2023Coventry0–0Sunderland
25 Feb 2023Coventry2–1Sunderland
31 Jul 2022Sunderland1–1Coventry

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Coventry	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.86	0.86
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	2.86	2.86	3.11
Over 1.5	57%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	60%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	29%	43%	63%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	57%	43%
Games	7	7

	Coventry	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	0.86	1.10
Conceded per game	2.00	1.60
Match goals	2.86	2.70	3.11
Over 1.5	57%	80%
Over 2.5	57%	40%	60%
Over 3.5	43%	10%
Both teams scored	29%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	14%	20%
Failed to score	57%	30%
Games	7	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Coventry	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	3.71	4.29
Corners conceded	4.71	4.14
Match total	8.42	8.43	9.49
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	14% 1/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.14
Opponent cards	1.43	1.71
Match total	2.72	3.85	4.17
Over 3.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Coventry	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.40
Corners conceded	4.22	3.80
Match total	7.78	9.20	9.49
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.60
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	2.70	4.60	4.17
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.