Hull City
Attack+26%
Defense risk−15%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Ipswich are the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 37). Hull City have 6 days of rest, Ipswich 7.8 and have to travel 212 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel212 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hull City37%
Draw25%
Ipswich38%
Hull City37%
Draw27%
Ipswich36%
Hull City37%
Draw25%
Ipswich38%
Hull City30%
Draw25%
Ipswich46%
Hull City38%
Draw25%
Ipswich37%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hull)
12°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 17%
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 88%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Hull City and Ipswich. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Ipswich
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Ipswich
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Ipswich
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Ipswich
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Hull CityIpswich
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
37
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
37
AttackIn forecast
59
50
DefenceIn forecast
50
36
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIpswich
Attack+25%
Defense risk−33%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Hull CityIpswich
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
71%
Scored inContext
71%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.71
ShotsContext
11.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
32%
On target shareContext
40%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
45%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.60
14.57
Shots allowedContext
16.86
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
4.29
BlocksContext
5.00
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
77%
Save rateContext
59%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
275
PassesContext
401
197
Accurate passesContext
331
72%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.65
10.86
FoulsContext
11.71
7.57
Fouls sufferedContext
9.14
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
12.10
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
37%
On target shareContext
41%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
50%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.80
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.10
BlocksContext
5.10
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
77%
Save rateContext
66%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
267
PassesContext
396
182
Accurate passesContext
323
68%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.10
FoulsContext
11.70
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hull City
DDLDL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Ipswich
LWLWL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel212 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hull City |
Ipswich |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct | 7.8Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 212 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hull City
Last XI · not confirmed
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy
22L. Herrington
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Ipswich
Last XI · not confirmed
28C. Walton(G)
24J. Greaves
6I. Diop
26D. O'Shea
3L. Davis
25E. Palacios
12Florentino
42A. Ouattara
10J. Enciso
38D. Maeda
19Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hull City
No reported absences
Ipswich
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Hull City+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ipswich+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Hull City · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Ipswich · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Hull City | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Everton | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester United | W 2–0 H | L 2–5 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Hull City wins1 draws3 Ipswich wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 3 Mar 2026Ipswich1–0Hull City
- 25 Nov 2025Hull City0–2Ipswich
- 27 Apr 2024Hull City3–3Ipswich
- 3 Oct 2023Ipswich3–0Hull City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Hull City | Ipswich | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.71 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Hull City | Ipswich | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.71 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hull City | Ipswich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.71 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 10.42 | 8.15 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.15 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Hull City | Ipswich | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.50 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Ipswich7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
8
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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