Newcastle vs Everton

Premier League Gameweek 9 Mon, Nov 2 · 20:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played DLWLL

VS— Compare

Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played DDWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Everton. Newcastle have 8.3 days of rest, Everton 9.3 and have to travel 195 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel195 kmRest days8.3 · 9.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle45%

Draw24%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.45

Newcastle47%

Draw26%

Everton27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Newcastle45%

Draw24%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.45

Newcastle37%

Draw24%

Everton38%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.62

Newcastle44%

Draw25%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.37

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

10°COvercast

Precipitation 20%
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 97%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Newcastle 71% Both teams scored Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Newcastle

Everton

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

61 AttackIn forecast 61

61 DefenceIn forecast 66

35 Form indexContext 50

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack+7%

Defense risk−11%

Everton

Attack+12%

Defense risk−9%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Newcastle

Everton

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

86% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.29 ShotsContext 14.43

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

29% On target shareContext 35%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.83

62% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.29

17.43 Shots allowedContext 13.71

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

7.57 BlocksContext 5.00

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 70%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

430 PassesContext 433

359 Accurate passesContext 361

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.14 FoulsContext 7.43

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29

2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 13.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

32% On target shareContext 34%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

59% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.25

17.50 Shots allowedContext 14.40

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

6.90 BlocksContext 5.44

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

68% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

452 PassesContext 414

380 Accurate passesContext 342

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.00 FoulsContext 9.70

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle DLWLL

Rest8.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected

L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts

Everton DDWDL

Rest9.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel195 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.3Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct	9.3Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct

21L. Horníček(G)

3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

7Joelinton 6Nico González

11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo

9Y. Wissa

Everton Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl

11T. Barry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle No reported absences

Everton No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Everton+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Everton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Everton
Hull City	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Newcastle wins2 draws4 Everton wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

28 Feb 2026Newcastle2–3Everton
29 Nov 2025Everton1–4Newcastle
25 May 2025Newcastle0–1Everton
5 Oct 2024Everton0–0Newcastle
2 Apr 2024Newcastle1–1Everton
7 Dec 2023Everton3–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.14
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.43	2.14	3.23
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	71%	29%	63%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	43%	64%
Clean sheets	14%	43%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Newcastle	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.30
Match goals	3.20	2.40	3.23
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	63%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	5.33
Corners conceded	5.29	6.00
Match total	9.86	11.33	9.49
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	2.71	1.71
Opponent cards	2.14	2.29
Match total	4.85	4.00	4.17
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	Newcastle	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.78
Corners conceded	4.60	5.56
Match total	9.40	11.34	9.49
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	4.40	3.80	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.