Chelsea vs Manchester United

Premier League Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 31 · 12:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played LDLWW

VS— Compare

Manchester United 13th · 7 pts · 7 played DLDDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Chelsea. Chelsea have 6.8 days of rest, Manchester United 5.9 and have to travel 262 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel262 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 3

Chelsea45%

Draw24%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.46

Chelsea41%

Draw27%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Chelsea45%

Draw24%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.46

Chelsea37%

Draw24%

Manchester United39%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.63

Chelsea44%

Draw25%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.36

Over 2.5 63% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 37 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

13°CClear

Precipitation 9%
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 65%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Chelsea

Manchester United

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

77 AttackIn forecast 72

74 DefenceIn forecast 80

69 Form indexContext 38

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack−8%

Defense risk+2%

Manchester United

Attack−2%

Defense risk+7%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Chelsea

Manchester United

2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

86% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.29 ShotsContext 19.57

5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

39% On target shareContext 26%

9.14 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

63% Box shareContext 55%

17% ConversionContext 7%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.43 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43

3.67 BlocksContext 2.86

4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

73% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

432 PassesContext 521

361 Accurate passesContext 450

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.84

9.29 FoulsContext 9.57

11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.43

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.30 ShotsContext 17.60

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

40% On target shareContext 31%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

60% Box shareContext 60%

17% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.44 BlocksContext 3.20

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

74% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

442 PassesContext 507

370 Accurate passesContext 439

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.50 FoulsContext 10.00

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea LDLWW

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts

Manchester United LDDLD

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel262 km2,469 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected

D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct	5.9Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	2,469 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	3.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct

1E. Martínez(G)

21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

9João Pedro

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct

1S. Lammens(G)

2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro

20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos

8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo

19B. Mbeumo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea No reported absences

Manchester United No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Manchester United+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 3.67
Conceded: 2.00

Manchester United · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Manchester United
Everton	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 A
Hull City	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Fulham	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Chelsea wins4 draws4 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.60 Over 2.540% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%

18 Apr 2026Chelsea0–1Manchester United
20 Sep 2025Manchester United2–1Chelsea
16 May 2025Chelsea1–0Manchester United
3 Nov 2024Manchester United1–1Chelsea
4 Apr 2024Chelsea4–3Manchester United
6 Dec 2023Manchester United2–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	2.43	1.43
Conceded per game	1.86	1.43
Match goals	4.29	2.86	3.25
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	29%	63%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	71%	65%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Chelsea	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.70
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	3.80	2.90	3.25
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	6.14
Corners conceded	5.43	3.57
Match total	11.29	9.71	9.51
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.71
Opponent cards	3.00	2.86
Match total	4.86	4.57	4.18
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7

	Chelsea	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.89
Corners conceded	5.30	3.22
Match total	10.10	9.11	9.51
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.60
Opponent cards	3.10	2.30
Match total	5.70	3.90	4.18
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.