Tottenham
Attack+19%
Defense risk−9%
Our take
Tottenham are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Tottenham. Tottenham have 7 days of rest, Crystal Palace 6.1 and have to travel 0 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Tottenham50%
Draw23%
Crystal Palace27%
Tottenham42%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace31%
Tottenham50%
Draw23%
Crystal Palace27%
Tottenham42%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace34%
Tottenham48%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace28%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
11°CClear
- Precipitation 12%
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 76%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Tottenham and Crystal Palace. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Alert
Crystal Palace
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Crystal Palace
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Crystal Palace
−0.34
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.52xG against1.86
Defence
-
Alert
Crystal Palace
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Crystal Palace
2.2
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Crystal Palace
−0.34
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.52xG against1.86
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
TottenhamCrystal Palace
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
56
AttackIn forecast
64
74
DefenceIn forecast
54
58
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack+5%
Defense risk−11%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
TottenhamCrystal Palace
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.06
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
43%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.14
ShotsContext
10.14
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
27%
On target shareContext
37%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
60%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.86
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.14
Shots allowedContext
17.86
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.14
4.00
BlocksContext
5.29
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
63%
Save rateContext
61%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
535
PassesContext
404
470
Accurate passesContext
326
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.86
FoulsContext
10.00
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
10.14
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
11.00
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
24%
On target shareContext
36%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
67%
Box shareContext
71%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.90
Shots allowedContext
16.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.40
BlocksContext
4.70
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
64%
Save rateContext
63%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
510
PassesContext
416
443
Accurate passesContext
341
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.20
FoulsContext
10.50
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Crystal Palace
WDWLL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,140 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 6.1Premier League 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 5,140 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Crystal Palace
Last XI · not confirmed
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor
26Chris Richards
6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell
23Q. Timber
20A. Wharton
25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino
18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
No reported absences
Crystal Palace
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Crystal Palace · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
6 Tottenham wins0 draws4 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 5 Mar 2026Tottenham1–3Crystal Palace
- 28 Dec 2025Crystal Palace0–1Tottenham
- 11 May 2025Tottenham0–2Crystal Palace
- 27 Oct 2024Crystal Palace1–0Tottenham
- 2 Mar 2024Tottenham3–1Crystal Palace
- 27 Oct 2023Crystal Palace1–2Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.71 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.67 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Tottenham | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.10 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.11 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.60 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
5
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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