Manchester City vs Napoli

UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Tue, Nov 24 · 20:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester City 17th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

VS— Compare

Napoli 32nd · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,869 kmRest days3.3 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Manchester City—%

Draw—%

Napoli—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 9 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Manchester City 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Manchester City

Napoli

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

91 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

92 AttackIn forecast 61

82 DefenceIn forecast 70

93 Form indexContext 44

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester City

Napoli

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.43 xGVia Att/Def —

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.43 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

23.50 ShotsContext 8.00

9.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

40% On target shareContext 38%

16.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

68% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 6%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.00 Shots allowedContext 21.50

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

1.50 BlocksContext 6.50

— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

60% Save rateContext 58%

59% PossessionIn forecast 45%

566 PassesContext 444

506 Accurate passesContext 375

89% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.38

13.50 FoulsContext 13.50

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

100% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.50 ShotsContext 14.70

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 34%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

69% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 8%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.90

11.20 Shots allowedContext 16.20

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.50 BlocksContext 5.13

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

68% Save rateContext 69%

62% PossessionIn forecast 53%

606 PassesContext 516

541 Accurate passesContext 450

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.00 FoulsContext 9.00

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City WWWLW

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

Napoli WDWLL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,869 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Venezia0–12.3 xPts
L13 OctA · Villarreal1–31.1 xPts
W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Manchester City	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Nov	3Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,869 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct

1G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes

32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić

11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye

9E. Haaland

Napoli Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Venezia (A) 0–1, 17 Oct

1A. Meret(G)

5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 22G. Di Lorenzo

8S. McTominay 23Giovane

20L. Lucca

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Napoli Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 4.00

Napoli · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Manchester City wins0 draws0 Napoli wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

18 Sep 2025Manchester City2–0Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Manchester City	Napoli
Scored per game	2.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	4.00	2.50
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Manchester City	Napoli
Scored per game	2.40	1.20
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	3.70	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Manchester City	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	2.50
Corners conceded	2.00	5.00
Match total	10.00	7.50	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.50
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	3.00	4.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Manchester City	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	3.88
Corners conceded	3.70	5.38
Match total	10.10	9.26	9.71
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.10
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	3.00	2.70	3.80
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.