RB Leipzig vs Lens – 24 Nov 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Tue, Nov 24 · 20:00 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig

RB Leipzig 21st · 3 pts · 2 played LW

VS— Compare

Lens 19th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel677 kmRest days3.2 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

RB Leipzig—%

Draw—%

Lens—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 9 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RB Leipzig

Lens

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

76 AttackIn forecast 63

53 DefenceIn forecast 53

78 Form indexContext 51

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RB Leipzig

Lens

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.50 ShotsContext 23.50

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

30% On target shareContext 30%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

68% Box shareContext 53%

6% ConversionContext 6%

— OffsidesContext 1.00

11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

1.50 BlocksContext 5.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

64% Save rateContext 60%

47% PossessionIn forecast 60%

414 PassesContext 493

361 Accurate passesContext 421

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.58

11.00 FoulsContext 8.00

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 2.25

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.40 ShotsContext 16.40

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

36% On target shareContext 37%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

69% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.29 OffsidesContext 1.56

14.20 Shots allowedContext 12.30

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.00 BlocksContext 3.44

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

69% Save rateContext 71%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

508 PassesContext 474

443 Accurate passesContext 405

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.30 FoulsContext 10.80

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig WLWWL

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km300 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Lens DLWLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel677 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	RB Leipzig	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov	3Ligue 1 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	677 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	300 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed

4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct

26M. Vandevoordt(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann

7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda

28C. Nkunku

Lens Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

40R. Risser(G)

20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio

22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar

7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lens Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Lens · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	RB Leipzig	Lens
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	3.50
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	RB Leipzig	Lens
Scored per game	2.10	2.10
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	4.10	3.60
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	80%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	70%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	RB Leipzig	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.50
Corners conceded	5.00	4.50
Match total	10.00	12.00	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	0.50
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	RB Leipzig	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.78
Corners conceded	5.70	5.89
Match total	10.50	12.67	9.71
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.10
Opponent cards	1.30	1.30
Match total	2.60	3.40	3.80
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.