UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Tue, Nov 24 · 17:45 Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,110 kmRest days20.9 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Bodo/Glimt—%
Draw—%
Lask Linz—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bodø)

Forecast from 9 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bodo/Glimt and Lask Linz. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Bodo/GlimtLask Linz
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 37
61 AttackIn forecast 48
64 DefenceIn forecast 34
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lask Linz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bodo/GlimtLask Linz
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.39
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.54
— Goals minus xGContext +0.11
50% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
7.00 ShotsContext 11.50
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
21% On target shareContext 30%
4.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
65% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 13%
1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
17.00 Shots allowedContext 22.00
8.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
5.00 BlocksContext 7.00
5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
63% Save rateContext 31%
41% PossessionIn forecast 44%
453 PassesContext 368
376 Accurate passesContext 298
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.54 Team ratingContext 6.52
7.50 FoulsContext 11.00
6.50 Fouls sufferedContext 5.50
0.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33
+0.68 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
80% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
10.60 ShotsContext 17.10
5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
44% On target shareContext 32%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.80
73% Box shareContext 63%
20% ConversionContext 14%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
18.70 Shots allowedContext 12.10
6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30
5.88 BlocksContext 3.40
4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.88
68% Save rateContext 48%
47% PossessionIn forecast 43%
504 PassesContext 353
422 Accurate passesContext 280
84% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.89
10.44 FoulsContext 11.00
9.22 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bodo/Glimt
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W14 OctH · Borussia Dortmund1–01.2 xPts
  • L10 SepA · Bayern München0–50.4 xPts
Lask Linz
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L14 OctH · Liverpool3–60.9 xPts
  • L8 SepA · AEK Athens FC0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bodo/Glimt Lask Linz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match20.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov20.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,110 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one15.115.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bodo/Glimt Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 1–0, 14 Oct
12N. Haikin(G)
15F. Bjørkan 5H. Aleesami 6J. Gundersen 20F. Sjøvold
10J. Hauge 19S. Fet 7P. Berg 8S. Auklend
9A. Helmersen 11O. Blomberg
Lask Linz Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 3–6, 14 Oct
1L. Jungwirth(G)
25Y. Dibango 16A. Andrade 43Alemão 4X. Mbuyamba 20Kasper Jørgensen
27C. Lang 18A. Schöpf 6M. Bogarde 9K. Daněk
7S. Adeniran

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bodo/Glimt Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lask Linz Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bodo/Glimt · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00
Lask Linz · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Bodo/Glimt2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 76-90
Lask Linz2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
Bodo/Glimt10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
0-15
4 2 16-30
5 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
5 3 61-75
3 10 76-90
Lask Linz10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 5 16-30
4 2 31-45
6 2 46-60
5 3 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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