UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Wed, Nov 25 · 20:00 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Lille 34th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 10th · 4 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel668 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lille—%
Draw—%
Bayern München—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Forecast from 10 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lille and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LilleBayern München
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
54 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
42 AttackIn forecast 96
60 DefenceIn forecast 90
39 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LilleBayern München
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.00
3.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
0.62 xGVia Att/Def —
1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
5.00 ShotsContext 24.00
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.00
20% On target shareContext 42%
2.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
46% Box shareContext 57%
20% ConversionContext 17%
3.50 OffsidesContext 2.50
18.00 Shots allowedContext 5.00
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —
5.50 BlocksContext —
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext —
54% Save rateContext 25%
44% PossessionIn forecast 66%
426 PassesContext 609
368 Accurate passesContext 556
86% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.50 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.00 FoulsContext 6.50
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
80% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.50 ShotsContext 22.80
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
42% On target shareContext 43%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
63% Box shareContext 59%
11% ConversionContext 16%
3.11 OffsidesContext 2.90
14.80 Shots allowedContext 8.10
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
4.00 BlocksContext 3.50
2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
69% Save rateContext 70%
51% PossessionIn forecast 68%
480 PassesContext 693
417 Accurate passesContext 625
87% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.86 Team ratingContext 7.30
10.90 FoulsContext 8.60
14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Stade Brestois 291–11.8 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts
  • W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts
Bayern München
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel668 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lille Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4Ligue 1 2026-2027, 21 Nov5Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km668 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one32.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 1–1, 17 Oct
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud 23T. Nianzou 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau 21B. André
7D. Bakwa 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.00
Bayern München · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

LilleBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.004.00
Conceded per game 3.001.50
Match goals 4.005.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 50%100%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
LilleBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.203.60
Conceded per game 1.300.90
Match goals 2.504.50
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 40%80%
Over 3.5 20%70%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 40%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LilleBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.0010.50
Corners conceded5.003.50
Match total10.0014.009.71
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 2/2
Over 9.5100% 1/150% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/150% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total4.004.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
LilleBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.008.44
Corners conceded4.503.78
Match total8.5012.229.71
Over 8.550% 4/8100% 9/9
Over 9.538% 3/878% 7/9
Over 10.513% 1/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards1.901.90
Match total3.402.903.80
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lille2 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
3 61-75
76-90
Bayern München2 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 3 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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