Sturm Graz vs Marseille

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 17:45 Merkur Arena, Graz

Sturm Graz 26th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

VS— Compare

Marseille 31st · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

Marseille are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Marseille. Sturm Graz have 6.9 days of rest, Marseille 4.2 and have to travel 892 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel892 kmRest days6.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 3

Sturm Graz36%

Draw25%

Marseille39%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.60

Sturm Graz38%

Draw27%

Marseille34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Sturm Graz36%

Draw25%

Marseille39%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.60

Sturm Graz29%

Draw24%

Marseille47%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.79

Sturm Graz37%

Draw25%

Marseille38%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.54

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Graz)

10°CMainly clear

Precipitation 3%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 53%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Sturm Graz

Marseille

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

32 AttackIn forecast 48

37 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext 41

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sturm Graz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack+2%

Defense risk−11%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sturm Graz

Marseille

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.53 xGVia Att/Def —

2.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.53 Goals minus xGContext —

0% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.50 ShotsContext 12.50

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

29% On target shareContext 32%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

65% Box shareContext 62%

0% ConversionContext 4%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

23.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

6.50 BlocksContext 3.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 55%

38% PossessionIn forecast 51%

289 PassesContext 488

197 Accurate passesContext 423

68% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.42 Team ratingContext 6.40

15.00 FoulsContext 13.50

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

60% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.50 ShotsContext 14.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

30% On target shareContext 38%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

61% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.71

14.60 Shots allowedContext 16.20

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.50 BlocksContext 4.78

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

76% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 55%

317 PassesContext 547

236 Accurate passesContext 481

75% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.85

13.10 FoulsContext 11.20

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sturm Graz DL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,652 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 39 · 1 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L15 OctA · Bournemouth0–30.5 xPts
D16 SepH · Rennes0–01.3 xPts

Marseille LLWLW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel892 km2,442 km in 14d

Schedule load32%Moderate

Form 41 · 6 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 OctA · Angers5–21.7 xPts
L15 OctH · Olympiakos Piraeus0–11.3 xPts
W11 OctA · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
L20 SepH · Paris Saint Germain1–20.8 xPts
L17 SepA · Besiktas1–41.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sturm Graz	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct	4.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	892 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,652 km	2,442 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sturm Graz Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–3, 15 Oct

53D. Khudyakov(G)

27L. Balbo 21P. Petrović 2J. Quarshie 23A. Malić 28Jurgen Heil

43J. Hödl 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 78V. Matoshi

26B. Beganović 19Simon Seidl

Marseille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Angers (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

6Tochukwu Nnadi

14Igor Paixão 8H. Abdelli 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sturm Graz No reported absences

Marseille No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sturm Graz+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Marseille+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sturm Graz · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Marseille · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sturm Graz	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.50	2.50
Match goals	1.50	3.00	3.14
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	100%	50%
Games	2	2

	Sturm Graz	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	2.00	3.40	3.14
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	61%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	10%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sturm Graz	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.50
Corners conceded	5.50	2.00
Match total	9.50	8.50	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	4.50	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Sturm Graz	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.70
Corners conceded	5.30	4.50
Match total	10.40	9.20	9.76
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	1.30	2.10
Match total	3.10	3.80	3.76
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.