AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 20:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 25th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

VS— Compare

Slovan Bratislava 36th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma are clear favourites.

AS Roma are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 20). Absences weigh more on AS Roma. AS Roma are without M. Svilar and B. Cristante. AS Roma have 3 days of rest, Slovan Bratislava 6 and have to travel 783 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel783 kmRest days3 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1

AS Roma80%

Draw13%

Slovan Bratislava7%

Expected goals 2.87 – 0.76

AS Roma78%

Draw15%

Slovan Bratislava7%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.69

AS Roma82%

Draw12%

Slovan Bratislava6%

Expected goals 2.96 – 0.73

AS Roma74%

Draw16%

Slovan Bratislava10%

Expected goals 2.56 – 0.85

AS Roma80%

Draw13%

Slovan Bratislava7%

Expected goals 2.87 – 0.78

Over 2.5 70% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

20°COvercast

Precipitation 58%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 75%

RefereeSandro Schärer

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 43

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AS Roma

Slovan Bratislava

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

72 AttackIn forecast 18

75 DefenceIn forecast 22

68 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack+27%

Defense risk−30%

Slovan Bratislava

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Slovan Bratislava

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 4.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.00 ShotsContext 12.00

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

46% On target shareContext 21%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

70% Box shareContext 54%

18% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 1.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 25.50

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 11.00

— BlocksContext 4.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 7.00

62% Save rateContext 64%

56% PossessionIn forecast 32%

580 PassesContext 322

513 Accurate passesContext 252

88% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.16

17.00 FoulsContext 8.50

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.79

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

90% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.80 ShotsContext 12.83

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

35% On target shareContext 31%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.83

70% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 7%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.70 Shots allowedContext 17.50

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

2.57 BlocksContext 4.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

76% Save rateContext 69%

57% PossessionIn forecast 43%

542 PassesContext 400

466 Accurate passesContext 320

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.63

12.70 FoulsContext 10.86

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma WDDLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,030 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · Genoa2–02.3 xPts
L14 OctH · Real Madrid3–41.2 xPts
D11 OctA · Como0–01.4 xPts
D19 SepH · Inter2–21.6 xPts
W14 SepA · Torino2–02.1 xPts

Slovan Bratislava LL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel783 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 35 · 0 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected

L14 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–30.8 xPts
L9 SepA · Paris Saint Germain1–60.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Slovan Bratislava
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Serie A 2026-2027, 17 Oct	6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	783 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,030 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Genoa (H) 2–0, 17 Oct

95P. Gollini(G)

3K. Koulierakis 5O. Ndicka 26L. Balerdi

2D. Rensch 61N. Pisilli 15M. de Roon 77Emanuele Lulli

86Rodrigo Mora 18M. Soulé

9S. Castro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Slovan Bratislava Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 0–3, 14 Oct

71D. Takáč(G)

57Sandro Cruz 15S. Marković 12K. Bajrič 28C. Blackman

20A. Mustafić 3P. Pokorný

21Suleiman Camara 70C. Martinez 11T. Barseghyan

99A. Šporar

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −29.9% · Defence line −28.7% of weighted minutes

DEF M. Svilar Starter 7.04 Def −16.5%
MID B. Cristante Starter 7.03 Att −10.5% Def −7.2%
MID M. Koné Starter 6.95 Att −7.4% Def −5.1%
ATT P. Dybala Starter 7.08 Att −12.0%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): Muhammed Bah

Slovan Bratislava Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals

Attack line −7.6% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes

ATT M. Kukharevych Rotation 4.53 Att −5.4%
ATT Manasse Kianga Rotation 6.25 Att −2.2%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Griger

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma-1.6 pp
Draw+0.9 pp
Slovan Bratislava+0.8 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 4.00

Slovan Bratislava · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 6.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Slovan Bratislava	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.50	4.50
Match goals	4.50	5.00	3.63
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	AS Roma	Slovan Bratislava	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.38
Conceded per game	0.80	1.63
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.63
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	70%
Over 3.5	40%	13%
Both teams scored	40%	63%	50%
Clean sheets	60%	25%
Failed to score	10%	13%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Slovan Bratislava	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	1.50
Corners conceded	5.00	7.50
Match total	9.00	9.00	9.71
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.00
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	5.00	2.50	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	AS Roma	Slovan Bratislava	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.17
Corners conceded	3.40	5.50
Match total	8.40	9.67	9.71
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.60
Opponent cards	2.00	2.70
Match total	4.00	4.30	3.80
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sandro Schärer 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.79league 3.64

Red cards0.21league 0.14

Cards 5+40%league 36%

Fouls23.1league 23.0

Penalties0.33league 0.28

Home wins40%league 58%

AS Roma1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W6 Mar 25H · Athletic Club2–11

Slovan Bratislava

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.