Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt – 20 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 20:00 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 32nd · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Bodo/Glimt 24th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Napoli are without A. Buongiorno. Bodo/Glimt are without O. Didrik Blomberg and H. Evjen. Napoli have 3.3 days of rest, Bodo/Glimt 6 and have to travel 2,939 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel2,939 kmRest days3.3 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 1

Napoli48%

Draw25%

Bodo/Glimt28%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.29

Napoli45%

Draw27%

Bodo/Glimt28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Napoli47%

Draw25%

Bodo/Glimt28%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.28

Napoli40%

Draw25%

Bodo/Glimt35%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.45

Napoli47%

Draw25%

Bodo/Glimt28%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.28

Over 2.5 59% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 5%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 67%

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 65

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Napoli

Bodo/Glimt

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

61 AttackIn forecast 61

70 DefenceIn forecast 64

44 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack−15%

Defense risk+14%

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Bodo/Glimt

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

8.00 ShotsContext 7.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

38% On target shareContext 21%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

65% Box shareContext 65%

6% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.00

21.50 Shots allowedContext 17.00

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.00

6.50 BlocksContext 5.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

58% Save rateContext 63%

45% PossessionIn forecast 41%

444 PassesContext 453

375 Accurate passesContext 376

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.38 Team ratingContext 6.54

13.50 FoulsContext 7.50

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 6.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.68

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.70 ShotsContext 10.60

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

34% On target shareContext 44%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

67% Box shareContext 73%

8% ConversionContext 20%

2.90 OffsidesContext 1.33

16.20 Shots allowedContext 18.70

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30

5.13 BlocksContext 5.88

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22

69% Save rateContext 68%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

516 PassesContext 504

450 Accurate passesContext 422

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.09

9.00 FoulsContext 10.44

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.22

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli WDWLL

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,506 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Venezia0–12.3 xPts
L13 OctA · Villarreal1–31.1 xPts
W10 OctH · Frosinone3–02.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fiorentina1–11.6 xPts
W13 SepH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts

Bodo/Glimt LW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,939 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W14 OctH · Borussia Dortmund1–01.2 xPts
L10 SepA · Bayern München0–50.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Bodo/Glimt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Serie A 2026-2027, 17 Oct	6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,939 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,506 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Venezia (A) 0–1, 17 Oct

1A. Meret(G)

5B. Badiashile 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 6B. Gilmour 22G. Di Lorenzo

8S. McTominay 23Giovane

20L. Lucca

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Bodo/Glimt Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 1–0, 14 Oct

12N. Haikin(G)

15F. Bjørkan 5H. Aleesami 6J. Gundersen 20F. Sjøvold

10J. Hauge 19S. Fet 7P. Berg 8S. Auklend

9A. Helmersen 11O. Blomberg

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −6.4% · Defence line −13.4% of weighted minutes

DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.65 Def −11.8%
ATT David Neres Rotation 6.90 Att −3.9%
MID A. Vergara Rotation 6.82 Att −1.6% Def −1.0%
MID C. Favasuli Rotation 6.77 Att −0.9% Def −0.5%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Marianucci

Bodo/Glimt Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −16.8% · Defence line −10.4% of weighted minutes

MID O. Didrik Blomberg Starter 6.98 Att −10.0% Def −6.2%
MID H. Evjen Starter 6.87 Att −6.8% Def −4.2%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Mikkelsen, M. Riisnæs, I. Sjong

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Bodo/Glimt-0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Bodo/Glimt · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 5.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Bodo/Glimt	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	2.00	2.50
Match goals	2.50	3.00	3.04
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Napoli	Bodo/Glimt	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.17
Conceded per game	1.10	1.83
Match goals	2.30	4.00	3.04
Over 1.5	60%	83%
Over 2.5	40%	83%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	67%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	33%
Failed to score	20%	17%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Bodo/Glimt	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	3.50
Corners conceded	5.00	7.50
Match total	7.50	11.00	9.71
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Napoli	Bodo/Glimt	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	3.89
Corners conceded	5.38	7.22
Match total	9.26	11.11	9.71
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.10
Match total	2.70	3.60	3.80
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.32league 3.64

Red cards0.31league 0.14

Cards 5+49%league 36%

Fouls25.3league 23.0

Penalties0.26league 0.28

Home wins51%league 58%

Napoli

No previous matches with this referee.

Bodo/Glimt1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L1 May 25A · Tottenham1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.