Premier League Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 7 · 15:00 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Hull City 9th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Arsenal are clear favourites.

Arsenal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Arsenal have 2.8 days of rest, Hull City 7 and have to travel 249 km.

Away travel249 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Arsenal87%
Draw9%
Hull City4%
Expected goals 3.29 – 0.64
Arsenal87%
Draw9%
Hull City4%
Expected goals 3.18 – 0.56
Arsenal87%
Draw9%
Hull City4%
Expected goals 3.29 – 0.64
Arsenal82%
Draw12%
Hull City6%
Expected goals 2.94 – 0.71
Arsenal85%
Draw10%
Hull City4%
Expected goals 3.09 – 0.62
Over 2.5 75% Both score 46% Likeliest score 3–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Arsenal and Hull City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ArsenalHull City
94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38
94 Current StrengthIn forecast 37
86 AttackIn forecast 37
95 DefenceIn forecast 50
92 Form indexContext 36
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack+30%
Defense risk−32%

Hull City

Attack−36%
Defense risk+37%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

ArsenalHull City
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 0.98
0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
86% Scored inContext 71%
57% Clean sheetsContext 43%
12.29 ShotsContext 10.71
4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
34% On target shareContext 32%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
73% Box shareContext 45%
13% ConversionContext 11%
4.00 OffsidesContext 1.40
11.14 Shots allowedContext 14.57
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86
3.00 BlocksContext 4.29
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71
71% Save rateContext 77%
61% PossessionIn forecast 32%
520 PassesContext 275
453 Accurate passesContext 197
87% Pass accuracyContext 72%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.75
10.14 FoulsContext 10.86
15.86 Fouls sufferedContext 7.57
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.14
0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
90% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 50%
13.50 ShotsContext 10.30
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
34% On target shareContext 37%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 5.88
71% Box shareContext 50%
12% ConversionContext 12%
3.60 OffsidesContext 1.57
10.80 Shots allowedContext 13.80
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.10 BlocksContext 4.10
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
75% Save rateContext 77%
57% PossessionIn forecast 33%
508 PassesContext 267
441 Accurate passesContext 182
87% Pass accuracyContext 68%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.82
11.20 FoulsContext 10.10
14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,638 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts
Hull City
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel249 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Fulham0–10.8 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Everton2–21.0 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Newcastle1–20.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Chelsea2–20.6 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Aston Villa0–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Arsenal Hull City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 13Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov7Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km249 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,638 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one14.115

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Hull City Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Fulham (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy 22L. Herrington 15J. Egan 6S. Ajayi 2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas 27R. Slater 25M. Crooks 10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Arsenal No reported absences
Hull City No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Arsenal+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Hull City+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Hull City · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentArsenalHull City
Chelsea W 2–1 H D 2–2 A
Aston Villa W 1–0 A D 0–0 H
Coventry W 3–0 H W 1–0 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game5 of 9 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

ArsenalHull CityForecast
Scored per game 1.571.14
Conceded per game 0.711.00
Match goals 2.292.14 3.93
Over 1.5 71%57%
Over 2.5 57%43% 75%
Over 3.5 0%29%
Both teams scored 29%43% 46%
Clean sheets 57%43%
Failed to score 14%29%
Games77
ArsenalHull CityForecast
Scored per game 1.701.14
Conceded per game 0.601.00
Match goals 2.302.14 3.93
Over 1.5 70%57%
Over 2.5 60%43% 75%
Over 3.5 0%29%
Both teams scored 30%43% 46%
Clean sheets 60%43%
Failed to score 10%29%
Games107

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ArsenalHull CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.713.71
Corners conceded4.006.71
Match total8.7110.429.49
Over 8.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.529% 2/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards1.293.00
Opponent cards3.291.00
Match total4.584.004.17
Over 3.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ArsenalHull CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.673.89
Corners conceded4.446.44
Match total9.1110.339.49
Over 8.544% 4/956% 5/9
Over 9.544% 4/956% 5/9
Over 10.533% 3/956% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.602.70
Opponent cards2.801.10
Match total4.403.804.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Everton Coventry Nov 620:00 Leeds Tottenham Nov 712:30 Fulham Newcastle Nov 715:00 Arsenal Hull City Nov 715:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester City Nov 717:30 Brighton Brentford Nov 814:00 Crystal Palace Liverpool Nov 814:00 Ipswich Bournemouth Nov 814:00 Sunderland Chelsea Nov 814:00 Manchester United Aston Villa Nov 816:30