Fulham
Attack+9%
Defense risk−3%
Our take
Fulham are slight favourites.
Newcastle are the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fulham. Fulham have 6.8 days of rest, Newcastle 4.8 and have to travel 398 km.
Away travel398 kmRest days6.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fulham44%
Draw23%
Newcastle32%
Fulham38%
Draw27%
Newcastle35%
Fulham44%
Draw23%
Newcastle32%
Fulham36%
Draw23%
Newcastle40%
Fulham44%
Draw24%
Newcastle32%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
Forecast from 23 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Fulham and Newcastle. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Fulham
+0.31
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.61xG against1.30
-
Trend
Newcastle
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Newcastle
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against1.60
-
Alert
Newcastle
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FulhamNewcastle
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
66
AttackIn forecast
61
68
DefenceIn forecast
61
42
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack+12%
Defense risk−6%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
FulhamNewcastle
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.71
ShotsContext
12.29
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
32%
On target shareContext
29%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
74%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.14
Shots allowedContext
17.43
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
4.43
BlocksContext
7.57
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
66%
Save rateContext
62%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
564
PassesContext
430
486
Accurate passesContext
359
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.43
FoulsContext
12.14
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.10
ShotsContext
12.40
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
32%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
70%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.11
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.70
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.89
BlocksContext
6.90
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
67%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
548
PassesContext
452
472
Accurate passesContext
380
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.60
FoulsContext
11.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
LDDLW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Newcastle
DLWLL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel398 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct | 4.8Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 398 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 325 km | 796 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Last XI · not confirmed
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Newcastle
Last XI · not confirmed
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
7Joelinton
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
28J. Willock
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
No reported absences
Newcastle
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Newcastle+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Newcastle · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fulham | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Fulham wins1 draws6 Newcastle wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.60
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets10% · 40%
- 24 May 2026Fulham2–0Newcastle
- 25 Oct 2025Newcastle2–1Fulham
- 1 Feb 2025Newcastle1–2Fulham
- 21 Sep 2024Fulham3–1Newcastle
- 6 Apr 2024Fulham0–1Newcastle
- 16 Dec 2023Newcastle3–0Fulham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.43 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 71% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fulham | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.43 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 10.72 | 9.86 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.86 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.85 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Fulham | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.40 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Fulham7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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