29% Home win
24% Draw
47% Away win
Nice 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
18:00
30 Oct 2026
Compare
Rennes 2nd · 16 pts · 8 played
Our take

Rennes are slight favourites.

Rennes are the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nice. Nice are without J. Clauss. Rennes are without E. Lepaul. Nice have 7 days of rest, Rennes 5.1 and have to travel 847 km. Conditions look neutral.

Nice29%
Draw24%
Rennes47%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.85
Nice28%
Draw27%
Rennes45%
Expected goals 1.16 – 1.54
Nice29%
Draw24%
Rennes47%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.82
Nice22%
Draw22%
Rennes55%
Expected goals 1.26 – 2.07
Nice29%
Draw24%
Rennes47%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.83
Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 56 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Fri, Oct 30 · 18:00 Allianz Riviera, Nice
Away travel847 kmRest days7 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 3

Squad & lineups

Nice Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (A) 2–1, 23 Oct
23Y. Diouf(G)
5M. Mohamed Ahmed 55Y. Ndayishimiye 36A. Seidu
27N. Nkounkou 6H. Boudaoui 28A. Witsel 92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura 7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
Rennes Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Strasbourg (H) 3–0, 25 Oct
30B. Samba(G)
18M. Nagida 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 48A. Aït Boudlal 95P. Frankowski
45M. Camara 21V. Rongier 17S. Szymański
11Mousa Al Ta'mari 22B. Dia
+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Nice Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −17.3% of weighted minutes
  • DEF J. Clauss Starter 6.83
  • DEF A. Seidu Rotation 6.48
  • DEF A. Mendy Rotation 6.59
  • DEF A. Abdi Depth 6.22
2 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Abergel, M. Bombito
Rennes Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −19.1% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
  • ATT E. Lepaul Starter 7.08
Total impact vs full squads
  • Nice-0.4 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Rennes+0.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Schedule last 5 · schedule

Nice
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,675 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 67 · 9 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
  • W23 OctA · Stade Brestois 292–10.9 xPts
  • L18 OctA · Lyon1–20.6 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Strasbourg2–11.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Lille2–10.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Auxerre0–11.1 xPts
Rennes
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel847 km2,196 km in 14d
Schedule load32%Moderate
Form 66 · 10 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • W25 OctH · Strasbourg3–02.0 xPts
  • D22 OctA · Juventus2–20.9 xPts
  • L18 OctA · Paris FC3–41.4 xPts
  • W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts

Next Matches

Nice
Rennes

Match difficulty: 0–100, higher is harder. Based on current relative Elo.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentNiceRennes
Lyon L 1–2 A L 0–4 A
Strasbourg W 2–1 H W 3–0 H
Auxerre L 0–1 A W 4–1 H
Le Mans D 1–1 H W 3–2 H
Paris FC L 0–3 A L 3–4 A
Points4 of 15 · 0.80 per game9 of 15 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Nice Rennes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Oct5.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km847 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,675 km2,196 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one8.96

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Head to head

Statistics

Compare teams →
Nice Record · 10 Rennes
5
50%10%40%
4
Goals2.90
Total: 29
1.30Home / Away1.60
BTTS60%
Total: 6 / 10
6Yes / No4
Over 2.560%
Total: 6 / 10
6Over / Under4

Latest H2H Matches

Rating Corners Fouls Yellow cards
8 Mar2026
Nice1.670
Rennes1.664
6.187.23
51
98
21
26 Oct2025
Rennes1.691
Nice0.762
6.686.76
73
1322
52
10 May2025
Rennes1.182
Nice1.050
7.376.83
—5
513
11
3 Jan2025
Nice1.503
Rennes1.712
6.976.84
33
1114
33
13 Jan2024
Rennes—2
Nice—0
7.236.75
66
1311
10
5 Nov2023
Nice—2
Rennes—0
7.276.63
21
712
02

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Summary uses the recorded sample above; Home / Away refers to the teams in this fixture. xG, corners, fouls and yellow cards are actual match statistics. Rating is the saved team average of player ratings weighted by minutes (0–10). Yellow cards include second yellows; missing values remain unavailable. Head-to-head is historical context, not a forecast adjustment.

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Nice and Rennes. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking