UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 17:45 Roazhon Park, Rennes
Rennes 13th · 4 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Olympiakos Piraeus 10th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 52). Rennes have 5.1 days of rest, Olympiakos Piraeus 13.9 and have to travel 2,333 km.

Away travel2,333 kmRest days5.1 · 13.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rennes39%
Draw24%
Olympiakos Piraeus37%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.67
Rennes37%
Draw27%
Olympiakos Piraeus35%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31
Rennes39%
Draw24%
Olympiakos Piraeus37%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.67
Rennes32%
Draw23%
Olympiakos Piraeus45%
Expected goals 1.54 – 1.87
Rennes39%
Draw24%
Olympiakos Piraeus37%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.59
Over 2.5 66% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Rennes and Olympiakos Piraeus. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RennesOlympiakos Piraeus
52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63
52 Current StrengthIn forecast 63
63 AttackIn forecast 54
39 DefenceIn forecast 68
42 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack−23%
Defense risk+16%

Olympiakos Piraeus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RennesOlympiakos Piraeus
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.44
0.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65
-0.79 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
24.00 ShotsContext 16.00
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
29% On target shareContext 31%
16.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
67% Box shareContext 74%
4% ConversionContext 9%
4.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
6.50 Shots allowedContext 7.50
2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
100% Save rateContext 100%
65% PossessionIn forecast 52%
503 PassesContext 441
433 Accurate passesContext 365
86% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.96
9.50 FoulsContext 10.50
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.38
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.46
80% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 70%
18.60 ShotsContext 17.10
6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
34% On target shareContext 30%
12.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.60
66% Box shareContext 61%
10% ConversionContext 6%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.70 Shots allowedContext 6.90
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70
4.89 BlocksContext 3.00
4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
68% Save rateContext 89%
54% PossessionIn forecast 59%
476 PassesContext 488
403 Accurate passesContext 392
85% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.95
12.40 FoulsContext 11.80
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,694 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Paris FC3–41.4 xPts
  • W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
  • D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts
Olympiakos Piraeus
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,333 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 74 · 6 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W15 OctA · Marseille1–01.5 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Jagiellonia2–12.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rennes Olympiakos Piraeus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct13.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,333 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,694 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 60 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one2.821

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Paris FC (A) 3–4, 18 Oct
30B. Samba(G)
95P. Frankowski 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds
28A. Thomasson 6D. Cissé 17S. Szymański
90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas
Olympiakos Piraeus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (A) 1–0, 15 Oct
1S. Ortega(G)
70S. Onyemaechi 5L. Pirola 45P. Retsos 2E. Saliakas
32S. Hezze 15G. Puerta
20Jota Silva 22Chiquinho 10Gelson Martins
11R. Yaremchuk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rennes No reported absences
Olympiakos Piraeus No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Rennes+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Olympiakos Piraeus+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

RennesOlympiakos PiraeusForecast
Scored per game 1.001.50
Conceded per game 0.500.50
Match goals 1.502.00 3.40
Over 1.5 50%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 66%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%50% 67%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
RennesOlympiakos PiraeusForecast
Scored per game 1.801.00
Conceded per game 1.800.75
Match goals 3.601.75 3.40
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 80%50% 66%
Over 3.5 60%0%
Both teams scored 70%50% 67%
Clean sheets 20%50%
Failed to score 20%25%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RennesOlympiakos PiraeusLeague
Corners
Corners won8.501.00
Corners conceded4.009.00
Match total12.5010.009.76
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 1/1
Over 9.550% 1/2100% 1/1
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/1
Cards
Cards1.002.00
Opponent cards2.502.50
Match total3.504.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
RennesOlympiakos PiraeusLeague
Corners
Corners won7.565.57
Corners conceded5.113.71
Match total12.679.289.76
Over 8.578% 7/957% 4/7
Over 9.567% 6/943% 3/7
Over 10.567% 6/929% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.001.80
Opponent cards2.501.70
Match total4.503.503.76
Over 3.580% 8/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Rennes2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1 0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Olympiakos Piraeus2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
4 5 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
7 4 76-90
Olympiakos Piraeus10 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

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