Exact scores use independent Poisson probabilities from LOAD90 forecast expected goals. Result and goal markets retain the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to compare the probabilities above. Detailed markets below retain the full LOAD90 forecast.
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NiceBaseline: average Ligue 1 opponent
RennesBaseline: average Ligue 1 opponent
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
| Nice ↓ · Rennes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nice goals, columns Rennes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice win | 29.1% | 29.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 23.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Rennes win | 47.2% | 46.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 62.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.3% | 64.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Nice | 1.42 | 1.41 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Rennes | 1.85 | 1.83 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Stats page.
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.4% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 45.2% | 53.6% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 55.0% | 47.1% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 65.3% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 72.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.5% | 100.0% |
Compared on the same 63 of 72 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5870 | 0.5835 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 54.0% | 52.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 46 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Pre-match forecasts only. 27 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.
