Juventus vs Rennes – 22 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 17:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 1st · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Rennes 13th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus are slight favourites.

Juventus are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus have 3.9 days of rest, Rennes 4.1 and have to travel 790 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel790 kmRest days3.9 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Juventus58%

Draw21%

Rennes21%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.27

Juventus53%

Draw25%

Rennes22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Juventus58%

Draw21%

Rennes21%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.27

Juventus50%

Draw23%

Rennes27%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.42

Juventus57%

Draw22%

Rennes21%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.20

Over 2.5 67% Both score 64% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 49 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

15°COvercast

Precipitation 0%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 52%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Juventus

Rennes

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

57 AttackIn forecast 63

76 DefenceIn forecast 39

74 Form indexContext 42

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack+7%

Defense risk+20%

Rennes

Attack−30%

Defense risk+20%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Juventus

Rennes

3.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.79

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.40

— Goals minus xGContext -0.79

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.50 ShotsContext 24.00

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

39% On target shareContext 29%

13.00 Shots in the boxContext 16.00

80% Box shareContext 67%

21% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 4.00

9.50 Shots allowedContext 6.50

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

1.00 BlocksContext —

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

80% Save rateContext 100%

51% PossessionIn forecast 65%

525 PassesContext 503

463 Accurate passesContext 433

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.20 Team ratingContext 6.98

14.00 FoulsContext 9.50

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

0.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.91

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.70 ShotsContext 18.60

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

35% On target shareContext 34%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.60

60% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.43

8.20 Shots allowedContext 14.70

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

1.89 BlocksContext 4.89

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22

68% Save rateContext 68%

57% PossessionIn forecast 54%

532 PassesContext 476

466 Accurate passesContext 403

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.60 FoulsContext 12.40

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus WWDWL

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,030 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Rennes DLWWL

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel790 km616 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Paris FC3–41.4 xPts
W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Rennes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Oct	4.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	790 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,030 km	616 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct

25G. Vicario(G)

2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz

17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González

9R. Kolo Muani

Rennes Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Paris FC (A) 3–4, 18 Oct

30B. Samba(G)

95P. Frankowski 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

28A. Thomasson 6D. Cissé 17S. Szymański

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus No reported absences

Rennes No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rennes+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 0.00

Rennes · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	3.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.50	0.50
Match goals	4.00	1.50	3.47
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Juventus	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.80
Match goals	2.90	3.60	3.47
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	67%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	8.50
Corners conceded	1.00	4.00
Match total	8.00	12.50	9.76
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	3.00	3.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Juventus	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	7.67	7.56
Corners conceded	3.22	5.11
Match total	10.89	12.67	9.76
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.50
Match total	3.40	4.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.