UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Villarreal 14th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Paris Saint Germain 1st · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Paris Saint Germain are slight favourites.

Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Villarreal. Villarreal have 4 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4.1 and have to travel 1,010 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,010 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Villarreal30%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain48%
Expected goals 1.59 – 2.06
Villarreal24%
Draw26%
Paris Saint Germain50%
Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66
Villarreal30%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain48%
Expected goals 1.59 – 2.06
Villarreal23%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain57%
Expected goals 1.42 – 2.31
Villarreal30%
Draw23%
Paris Saint Germain47%
Expected goals 1.51 – 1.92
Over 2.5 71% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
13°CMainly clear
  • Precipitation 13%
  • Wind 8 km/h
  • Humidity 70%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

VillarrealParis Saint Germain
67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90
65 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
76 AttackIn forecast 91
73 DefenceIn forecast 83
79 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack−24%
Defense risk+72%

Paris Saint Germain

Attack−27%
Defense risk+42%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

VillarrealParis Saint Germain
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 5.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.36 xGVia Att/Def —
2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+1.14 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.00 ShotsContext 25.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 12.00
33% On target shareContext 48%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 15.50
58% Box shareContext 58%
17% ConversionContext 20%
3.00 OffsidesContext —
14.50 Shots allowedContext 18.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
4.50 BlocksContext 5.50
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
67% Save rateContext 69%
50% PossessionIn forecast 59%
487 PassesContext 588
415 Accurate passesContext 524
85% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.77 Team ratingContext 7.25
9.00 FoulsContext 9.50
15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.37
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
70% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.50 ShotsContext 21.50
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80
36% On target shareContext 36%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
67% Box shareContext 56%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.90 OffsidesContext 3.33
12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.90
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
4.63 BlocksContext 3.22
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
72% Save rateContext 78%
59% PossessionIn forecast 67%
560 PassesContext 702
493 Accurate passesContext 632
88% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.86 Team ratingContext 7.07
10.40 FoulsContext 7.00
12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km114 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts
Paris Saint Germain
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,010 km356 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Villarreal Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Oct4.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,010 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways114 km356 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 61 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one4.94

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez
Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Villarreal No reported absences
Paris Saint Germain No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Villarreal+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00
Paris Saint Germain · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

VillarrealParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 2.505.00
Conceded per game 2.001.50
Match goals 4.506.50 3.66
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100% 71%
Over 3.5 100%100%
Both teams scored 100%100% 70%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
VillarrealParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.602.50
Conceded per game 1.501.40
Match goals 3.103.90 3.66
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 70%90% 71%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 70%90% 70%
Clean sheets 10%10%
Failed to score 30%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VillarrealParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.50
Corners conceded6.506.50
Match total12.0011.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.500.50
Opponent cards2.001.00
Match total4.501.503.80
Over 3.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
VillarrealParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won6.505.57
Corners conceded4.704.14
Match total11.209.719.71
Over 8.560% 6/1071% 5/7
Over 9.560% 6/1043% 3/7
Over 10.560% 6/1029% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.701.00
Opponent cards2.902.30
Match total4.603.303.80
Over 3.580% 8/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Villarreal2 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain2 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
2 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 5 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 5 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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