Exact scores use independent Poisson probabilities from LOAD90 forecast expected goals. Result and goal markets retain the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Scenario lab Beta
Paris Saint Germain87%
Draw9%
Lyon5%
Expected goals 3.79 – 0.93
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw18%
Lyon10%
Expected goals 2.32 – 0.77
Paris Saint Germain87%
Draw8%
Lyon5%
Expected goals 3.83 – 0.93
Paris Saint Germain81%
Draw11%
Lyon7%
Expected goals 3.38 – 1.04
Paris Saint Germain85%
Draw9%
Lyon5%
Expected goals 3.59 – 0.90
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to compare the probabilities above. Detailed markets below retain the full LOAD90 forecast.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Clean Sheet−17.5 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline19.7%→Forecast2.3%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
Paris Saint Germain ↓ · Lyon →
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
3.4
3.1
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
6.4
6.0
2.8
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
8.1
7.5
3.5
1.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
4
7.7
7.1
3.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
5.8
5.4
2.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
6+
7.2
6.7
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Paris Saint Germain goals, columns Lyon goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
3–08.1%12.37
4–07.7%13.03
3–17.5%13.28
4–17.1%14.00
2–06.4%15.64
2–16.0%16.80
5–05.8%17.18
5–15.4%18.45
6–03.7%27.16
3–23.5%28.52
Winning margin
54.7%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 1.83
18.2%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 5.51
13.9%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 7.19
8.5%
Draw
fair 11.77
3.3%
Lyon by 1
fair 30.43
1.1%
Lyon by 2
fair 91.42
0.3%
Lyon by 3+
fair 297.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
4%1
10%2
16%3
18%4
51%5+
Paris Saint Germain goals
2%0
9%1
16%2
21%3
52%4+
Lyon goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
LOAD90
EloLambda
Change
Paris Saint Germain win
86.8%
85.4%
+1.3 pp
Draw
8.5%
9.4%
-0.9 pp
Lyon win
4.7%
5.2%
-0.5 pp
Over 2.5
85.0%
82.6%
+2.4 pp
Both teams score
59.4%
58.0%
+1.4 pp
Expected goals Paris Saint Germain
3.79
3.59
+0.20
Expected goals Lyon
0.93
0.90
+0.03
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
Paris Saint Germain win86.8%1.15
Draw8.5%11.77
Lyon win4.7%21.21
Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw95.3%1.05
Double chance Paris Saint Germain or Lyon91.5%1.09
Double chance Lyon or draw13.2%7.57
Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain94.8%1.05
Draw no bet Lyon5.2%19.40
Goals
Over 0.598.9%1.01
Over 1.595.1%1.05
Over 2.585.0%1.18
Over 3.569.4%1.44
Over 4.550.9%1.96
Under 1.54.9%20.33
Under 2.515.0%6.67
Under 3.530.6%3.27
Both teams to score
Yes59.4%1.68
No40.6%2.46
Yes and over 2.556.1%1.78
Paris Saint Germain win and yes48.4%2.06
Draw and yes7.4%13.44
Lyon win and yes3.5%28.44
Team goals
Paris Saint Germain over 0.597.7%1.02
Paris Saint Germain over 1.589.2%1.12
Paris Saint Germain over 2.573.0%1.37
Lyon over 0.560.6%1.65
Lyon over 1.523.9%4.18
Lyon over 2.56.8%14.69
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet39.4%2.54
Lyon clean sheet2.3%44.37
Paris Saint Germain win to nil38.4%2.61
Lyon win to nil1.2%83.39
Handicap
Paris Saint Germain −1.572.9%1.37
Paris Saint Germain −2.554.7%1.83
Lyon +1.527.1%3.69
Lyon +2.545.3%2.21
Lyon −1.51.4%69.95
Paris Saint Germain +1.598.6%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Stats page.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored71Favourite won53.5%Avg chance given to result40.7%1X2 Brier0.596Over 2.5 called right63.4%BTTS called right63.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
Favourite chance
Matches
Predicted
Actually won
30–40%
7
38.4%
28.6%
40–50%
28
45.2%
53.6%
50–60%
17
55.0%
47.1%
60–70%
14
65.3%
71.4%
70–80%
4
72.8%
50.0%
80%+
1
86.1%
100.0%
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 62 of 71 scored matches.
LOAD90
Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)
0.5961
0.5908
Avg chance given to result
40.9%
40.4%
Favourite won
53.2%
51.6%
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 46 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Pre-match forecasts only. 26 of 71 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.
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The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
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Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
