Sporting CP
Attack+7%
Defense risk+10%
Our take
Sporting CP are clear favourites.
Sporting CP are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lask Linz. Sporting CP are without R. Zalazar. Lask Linz are without M. Usor and G. Bello. Sporting CP have 8.1 days of rest, Lask Linz 7.1 and have to travel 2,157 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel2,157 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sporting CP75%
Draw15%
Lask Linz10%
Sporting CP73%
Draw17%
Lask Linz9%
Sporting CP74%
Draw16%
Lask Linz10%
Sporting CP68%
Draw18%
Lask Linz14%
Sporting CP74%
Draw16%
Lask Linz10%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
14°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0%
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 62%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sporting CP and Lask Linz. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Lask Linz
+0.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.72xG against1.33
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Lask Linz
+0.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.72xG against1.33
Defence
Team strength
Sporting CPLask Linz
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
75
AttackIn forecast
48
81
DefenceIn forecast
34
83
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLask Linz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPLask Linz
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.54
+0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
53%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
61%
Box shareContext
64%
26%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
22.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.00
BlocksContext
7.00
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
100%
Save rateContext
31%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
402
PassesContext
368
333
Accurate passesContext
298
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.52
12.50
FoulsContext
11.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
5.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
17.10
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
45%
On target shareContext
32%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
66%
Box shareContext
63%
21%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.33
BlocksContext
3.40
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
81%
Save rateContext
48%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
521
PassesContext
353
457
Accurate passesContext
280
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.70
FoulsContext
11.00
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,854 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Lask Linz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,854 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Lask Linz
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Jungwirth(G)
25Y. Dibango
16A. Andrade
43Alemão
4X. Mbuyamba
20Kasper Jørgensen
27C. Lang
18A. Schöpf
6M. Bogarde
9K. Daněk
7S. Adeniran
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −7.9% · Defence line −7.4% of weighted minutes
- MID R. Zalazar Starter 7.00 Att −7.7% Def −5.3%
- DEF Z. Debast Rotation 6.98 Def −2.0%
- MID Nuno Santos Depth 6.68 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%
Lask Linz
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −29.9% · Defence line −9.5% of weighted minutes
- ATT M. Usor Core 7.36 Att −29.9%
- DEF G. Bello Starter 6.89 Def −9.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lask Linz-0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lask Linz · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Lask Linz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sporting CP | Lask Linz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.75 | 3.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 75% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Lask Linz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 9.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 12.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Sporting CP | Lask Linz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 6.89 | 11.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sporting CP2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Lask Linz2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Lask Linz10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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