AC Milan vs Sunderland

UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 10 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

AC Milan 16th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

VS— Compare

Sunderland 9th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,289 kmRest days4.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 4

Real contextStrength only

AC Milan—%

Draw—%

Sunderland—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Milano)

Forecast from 25 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AC Milan

Sunderland

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

66 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

72 AttackIn forecast 62

69 DefenceIn forecast 59

74 Form indexContext 56

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AC Milan

Sunderland

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

2.51 xGVia Att/Def 2.07

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

50% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

15.00 ShotsContext 21.00

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

47% On target shareContext 21%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 14.50

70% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 7%

— OffsidesContext 1.00

12.50 Shots allowedContext 7.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

67% Save rateContext 100%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

511 PassesContext 401

464 Accurate passesContext 329

91% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.00 FoulsContext 16.00

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.56

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.20 ShotsContext 14.40

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

38% On target shareContext 30%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

69% Box shareContext 65%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.70 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.44 BlocksContext 3.90

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

78% Save rateContext 52%

57% PossessionIn forecast 49%

556 PassesContext 395

498 Accurate passesContext 316

90% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.71

9.90 FoulsContext 12.70

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AC Milan LWDWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,386 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W18 OctH · Atalanta3–22.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Red Bull Salzburg4–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts

Sunderland WLLWL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel1,289 km425 km in 14d

Schedule load47%High

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AC Milan	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 47
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Dec	5.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,289 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,386 km	425 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 4 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	1.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AC Milan Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Atalanta (H) 3–2, 18 Oct

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

22Diego Moreira 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze

11C. Pulišić 9Gonçalo Ramos 12A. Rabiot

Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume

57T. Tuterov

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AC Milan Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Sunderland Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

AC Milan · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Sunderland · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AC Milan	Sunderland
Scored per game	2.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.00	0.50
Match goals	3.00	2.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	AC Milan	Sunderland
Scored per game	1.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.10	1.60
Match goals	3.00	2.70
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AC Milan	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	9.00
Corners conceded	2.00	3.50
Match total	7.50	12.50	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.50
Match total	4.50	4.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	AC Milan	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	5.40
Corners conceded	3.10	3.80
Match total	6.80	9.20	9.76
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.60
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.60	4.60	3.76
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.