SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sun, Nov 8 · 16:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

SC Freiburg 3rd · 13 pts · 6 played WWDWL

VS— Compare

Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played LLLWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Freiburg are clear favourites.

SC Freiburg are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. SC Freiburg have 8.1 days of rest, Union Berlin 7.1 and have to travel 640 km.

Away travel640 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

SC Freiburg61%

Draw21%

Union Berlin18%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.07

SC Freiburg59%

Draw23%

Union Berlin18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.94

SC Freiburg61%

Draw21%

Union Berlin18%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.07

SC Freiburg53%

Draw24%

Union Berlin24%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.20

SC Freiburg59%

Draw22%

Union Berlin18%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.02

Over 2.5 62% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak SC Freiburg 6 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

SC Freiburg

Union Berlin

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

63 AttackIn forecast 42

73 DefenceIn forecast 41

78 Form indexContext 38

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack+6%

Defense risk−18%

Union Berlin

Attack−16%

Defense risk+2%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

SC Freiburg

Union Berlin

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.83

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

100% Scored inContext 50%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.00 ShotsContext 12.83

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75

33% On target shareContext 35%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

63% Box shareContext 64%

16% ConversionContext 7%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.60

9.17 Shots allowedContext 15.67

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

3.33 BlocksContext 4.20

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

64% Save rateContext 56%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

465 PassesContext 359

390 Accurate passesContext 268

84% Pass accuracyContext 75%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.58

9.50 FoulsContext 11.67

14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

+0.88 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 12.30

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

37% On target shareContext 38%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

64% Box shareContext 63%

18% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.43

11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.80 BlocksContext 4.13

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

60% Save rateContext 57%

53% PossessionIn forecast 45%

445 PassesContext 372

373 Accurate passesContext 285

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.80 FoulsContext 10.30

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg WWDWL

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km459 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

L18 OctA · Bayer Leverkusen1–20.8 xPts
W11 OctH · FC Schalke 042–12.0 xPts
D19 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt2–21.5 xPts
W12 SepH · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–02.1 xPts
W5 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–01.5 xPts

Union Berlin LLLWD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel640 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct	7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	640 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	459 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	12.9	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Bayer Leverkusen (A) 1–2, 18 Oct

1M. Backhaus(G)

33J. Makengo 3P. Lienhart 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu

16Y. Engelhardt 8M. Eggestein

7D. Scherhant 42Keisuke Goto 19J. Beste

31I. Matanović

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

1F. Rønnow(G)

15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer

13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer

30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira

21T. Skarke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Freiburg No reported absences

Union Berlin No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Union Berlin+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.67
Conceded: 0.67

Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 5.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen	L 1–2 A	L 0–4 A
FC Schalke 04	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	D 2–2 A	D 3–3 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 SC Freiburg wins4 draws5 Union Berlin wins

Goals per game0.90 – 1.40 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 50%

15 Mar 2026SC Freiburg0–1Union Berlin
1 Nov 2025Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
30 Mar 2025SC Freiburg1–2Union Berlin
8 Nov 2024Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
18 May 2024Union Berlin2–1SC Freiburg
13 Jan 2024SC Freiburg0–0Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	0.83
Conceded per game	1.00	2.83
Match goals	3.50	3.67	3.19
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	83%	67%	62%
Over 3.5	50%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	58%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	6	6

	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	2.30
Match goals	3.80	3.80	3.19
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	90%	80%	62%
Over 3.5	60%	80%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	5.17	4.00
Corners conceded	3.50	5.83
Match total	8.67	9.83	10.72
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	17% 1/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	2.50
Opponent cards	1.83	2.00
Match total	3.66	4.50	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6

	SC Freiburg	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.10
Corners conceded	4.00	6.50
Match total	8.10	10.60	10.72
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	3.60	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.