Bundesliga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 28 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel455 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
FSV Mainz 05—%
Draw—%
Union Berlin—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
55 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
68 AttackIn forecast 42
56 DefenceIn forecast 41
70 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.83
2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.17
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
83% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.83 ShotsContext 12.83
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75
34% On target shareContext 35%
13.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
76% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 7%
2.40 OffsidesContext 2.60
12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.67
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
4.17 BlocksContext 4.20
2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40
57% Save rateContext 56%
51% PossessionIn forecast 44%
446 PassesContext 359
357 Accurate passesContext 268
80% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.58
13.83 FoulsContext 11.67
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
90% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.10 ShotsContext 12.30
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
36% On target shareContext 38%
12.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
75% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.22 OffsidesContext 2.43
12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90
3.30 BlocksContext 4.13
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
58% Save rateContext 57%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
420 PassesContext 372
337 Accurate passesContext 285
80% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.80 FoulsContext 10.30
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km523 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel455 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 22 Nov7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km455 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways523 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 21 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker
Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union Berlin Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33
Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentFSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
FC Schalke 04 W 1–0 A L 1–3 H
Bayer Leverkusen L 3–4 H L 0–4 A
Eintracht Frankfurt L 1–3 H D 3–3 H
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 FSV Mainz 05 wins4 draws6 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.570% Both scored90% Clean sheets10% · 10%
  • 10 May 2026FSV Mainz 051–3Union Berlin
  • 10 Jan 2026Union Berlin2–2FSV Mainz 05
  • 19 Jan 2025Union Berlin2–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 24 Aug 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
  • 7 Feb 2024FSV Mainz 051–1Union Berlin
  • 20 Aug 2023Union Berlin4–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FSV Mainz 05Union BerlinForecast
Scored per game 2.330.83
Conceded per game 1.672.83
Match goals 4.003.67
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 50%33%
Clean sheets 50%33%
Failed to score 17%50%
Games66
FSV Mainz 05Union BerlinForecast
Scored per game 2.201.50
Conceded per game 1.802.30
Match goals 4.003.80
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 60%80%
Both teams scored 60%50%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FSV Mainz 05Union BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won4.834.00
Corners conceded4.005.83
Match total8.839.8310.72
Over 8.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 9.533% 2/667% 4/6
Over 10.517% 1/633% 2/6
Cards
Cards2.332.50
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total4.334.503.51
Over 3.550% 3/683% 5/6
Over 4.517% 1/633% 2/6
FSV Mainz 05Union BerlinLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.10
Corners conceded4.906.50
Match total9.7010.6010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 9.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.902.20
Opponent cards1.901.90
Match total3.804.103.51
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.510% 1/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

FSV Mainz 056 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 6 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Borussia Mönchengladbach Nov 2719:30 FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin Nov 2814:30 Hamburger SV Bayern München Nov 2814:30 SC Paderborn 07 FC Schalke 04 Nov 2814:30 1.FC Köln SV Elversberg Nov 2814:30 VfB Stuttgart Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 2817:30 SC Freiburg RB Leipzig Nov 2914:30 1899 Hoffenheim FC Augsburg Nov 2916:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen Nov 2918:30