Bundesliga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 28 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel612 kmRest days5.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Hamburger SV—%
Draw—%
Bayern München—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Hamburg)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Hamburger SV and Bayern München. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Hamburger SVBayern München
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
40 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
37 AttackIn forecast 96
43 DefenceIn forecast 90
70 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SVBayern München
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.67
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 3.57
1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.10
50% Scored inContext 83%
17% Clean sheetsContext 33%
11.00 ShotsContext 24.17
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.33
33% On target shareContext 43%
6.33 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
56% Box shareContext 61%
9% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.67
19.17 Shots allowedContext 7.67
5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83
5.33 BlocksContext 3.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40
62% Save rateContext 75%
40% PossessionIn forecast 69%
346 PassesContext 706
270 Accurate passesContext 635
78% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.54 Team ratingContext 7.39
14.17 FoulsContext 10.50
12.83 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 0.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.60
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.11 xGVia Att/Def 3.27
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
70% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
11.60 ShotsContext 22.80
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.80
35% On target shareContext 43%
6.90 Shots in the boxContext 13.40
59% Box shareContext 59%
11% ConversionContext 16%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.90
16.40 Shots allowedContext 8.10
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
4.56 BlocksContext 3.50
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38
64% Save rateContext 70%
40% PossessionIn forecast 68%
348 PassesContext 693
275 Accurate passesContext 625
79% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.71 Team ratingContext 7.30
12.40 FoulsContext 8.60
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
  • W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
  • L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts
Bayern München
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel612 km1,336 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hamburger SV Bayern München
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 22 Nov2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 25 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km612 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways190 km1,336 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo
37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe
15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira
Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hamburger SV Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
Bayern München · Away 1.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-2-0
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentHamburger SVBayern München
VfB Stuttgart W 1–0 H W 5–1 H
RB Leipzig L 0–5 A W 6–1 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Hamburger SV wins1 draws1 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 31 Jan 2026Hamburger SV2–2Bayern München
  • 13 Sep 2025Bayern München5–0Hamburger SV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Hamburger SVBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.003.67
Conceded per game 2.500.83
Match goals 3.504.50
Over 1.5 83%83%
Over 2.5 67%83%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 17%33%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
Hamburger SVBayern MünchenForecast
Scored per game 1.303.60
Conceded per game 2.100.90
Match goals 3.404.50
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 40%70%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hamburger SVBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.839.40
Corners conceded6.003.20
Match total9.8312.6010.72
Over 8.567% 4/6100% 5/5
Over 9.550% 3/6100% 5/5
Over 10.533% 2/6100% 5/5
Cards
Cards1.330.83
Opponent cards2.172.17
Match total3.503.003.51
Over 3.550% 3/650% 3/6
Over 4.50% 0/60% 0/6
Hamburger SVBayern MünchenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.608.44
Corners conceded6.403.78
Match total10.0012.2210.72
Over 8.570% 7/10100% 9/9
Over 9.550% 5/1078% 7/9
Over 10.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards2.601.90
Match total4.102.903.51
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Hamburger SV6 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 1 0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
2 1 0-15
5 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 6 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Borussia Mönchengladbach Nov 2719:30 FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin Nov 2814:30 Hamburger SV Bayern München Nov 2814:30 SC Paderborn 07 FC Schalke 04 Nov 2814:30 1.FC Köln SV Elversberg Nov 2814:30 VfB Stuttgart Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 2817:30 SC Freiburg RB Leipzig Nov 2914:30 1899 Hoffenheim FC Augsburg Nov 2916:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen Nov 2918:30