UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 17:45 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 12th · 4 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Hapoel Beer Sheva 24th · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 28). Union St. Gilloise have 7 days of rest, Hapoel Beer Sheva 7 and have to travel 3,308 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel3,308 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Union St. Gilloise72%
Draw17%
Hapoel Beer Sheva11%
Expected goals 2.50 – 0.91
Union St. Gilloise70%
Draw19%
Hapoel Beer Sheva11%
Expected goals 2.26 – 0.79
Union St. Gilloise72%
Draw17%
Hapoel Beer Sheva11%
Expected goals 2.50 – 0.91
Union St. Gilloise64%
Draw20%
Hapoel Beer Sheva16%
Expected goals 2.23 – 1.02
Union St. Gilloise71%
Draw18%
Hapoel Beer Sheva11%
Expected goals 2.39 – 0.85
Over 2.5 66% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
10°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 31%
  • Wind 11 km/h
  • Humidity 92%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer Sheva
70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 28
62 AttackIn forecast 26
74 DefenceIn forecast 31
73 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer Sheva
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def 0.92
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47
— Goals minus xGContext -0.42
100% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
19.00 ShotsContext 10.50
9.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
47% On target shareContext 29%
12.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
63% Box shareContext 65%
11% ConversionContext 5%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
9.50 Shots allowedContext 10.50
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
2.50 BlocksContext 3.50
— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
80% Save rateContext 71%
48% PossessionIn forecast 54%
475 PassesContext 550
394 Accurate passesContext 466
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.08 Team ratingContext 6.57
13.00 FoulsContext 13.50
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.40 xGVia Att/Def —
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext —
90% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.30 ShotsContext 13.25
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
41% On target shareContext 34%
13.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.25
75% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.78 OffsidesContext 2.50
11.90 Shots allowedContext 15.50
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
3.90 BlocksContext 3.75
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
75% Save rateContext 67%
51% PossessionIn forecast 63%
461 PassesContext 569
379 Accurate passesContext 489
82% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.68
11.90 FoulsContext 11.40
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel3,308 km6,773 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Form 34 · 1 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · AZ Alkmaar1–20.8 xPts
  • D16 SepH · Dinamo Zagreb0–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise Hapoel Beer Sheva
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km3,308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km6,773 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one3.114.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
Hapoel Beer Sheva Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs AZ Alkmaar (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
1O. Marciano(G)
5Pedro Amador 15I. Nachmias 44Djibril Diop 2G. Mizrahi
7E. Peretz 25Lucas Ventura 17A. Forson
9Z. Ahmed 66I. Zlatanović 45M. Abu Rumi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise No reported absences
Hapoel Beer Sheva No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer ShevaForecast
Scored per game 2.000.50
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 2.501.50 3.41
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 66%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%50% 55%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer ShevaForecast
Scored per game 2.301.38
Conceded per game 0.701.25
Match goals 3.002.63 3.41
Over 1.5 90%75%
Over 2.5 60%50% 66%
Over 3.5 30%13%
Both teams scored 40%50% 55%
Clean sheets 60%50%
Failed to score 10%13%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer ShevaLeague
Corners
Corners won2.503.50
Corners conceded3.503.50
Match total6.007.009.76
Over 8.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 9.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.004.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Union St. GilloiseHapoel Beer ShevaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.803.20
Corners conceded3.904.60
Match total8.707.809.76
Over 8.550% 5/1020% 1/5
Over 9.550% 5/1020% 1/5
Over 10.540% 4/1020% 1/5
Cards
Cards2.003.30
Opponent cards1.902.10
Match total3.905.403.76
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Hapoel Beer Sheva9 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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