SC Paderborn 07

16th · Bundesliga · 5 points · Matches played: 6

9 points behind Bayern München · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-4.9 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed -0.8 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 38.0-4.9
World Rank 147th Global, by Elo
Bundesliga Rank 16th L90 Strength
Last Werder BremenA xG 0.9–2.9 2–2 Next Hamburger SVH 42%

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Our take

Up against it.

SC Paderborn 07 are short of quality at both ends, with one of the weaker attack in the league and one of the weaker defence in the league. Across the 6 league matches with forecasts, their points total is close to our pre-match expectations. The toughest of the next 3 matches is the trip to Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Bundesliga · 6 games. Their scorelines look better than their chance balance. Scoring fewer goals than their chances suggest is offset by conceding fewer than expected; good goalkeeping or poor finishing by opponents may explain the defensive gap.

They are wasteful in front of goal (6% of shots scored). Their results hold up much the same at home and away.

  • Relegation 27%Likely 15th · 35 projected points
  • Next 3: about 4 of 9 points Toughest at Borussia Mönchengladbach · , 35% to win
  • 5 out, none key2% of squad weight missing · Last match: 17 Oct
  • 5 pts vs 6.2 expected-1.2 vs pre-match expectations · 6 matches with forecasts

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Paderborn 07. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals for this club in each category.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses observed Playing style averages; window size is not xG coverage and the two metrics can have different denominators. Points minus xPts uses the same covered current-league matches and stored forecasts as Club strength, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

The full picture, with the evidence behind every signal.View all Club insights →

Season

League position and season results.

Overview

2026-2027
All competitions6 Played
Bundesliga5 pts0.83 PPG6 games 16th
16.7%Win %
Wins1
Draws2
Losses3

Expected metrics · 6 of 6 matches covered

Goals For
50.83 / game
xG 5.38 0.38 fewer goals than expected. vs 5 goals
Goals Against
91.50 / game
xGA 11.02 2.02 fewer conceded than expected. vs 9 conceded
Goal Difference
-4-0.67 / game
xGD -5.64 Goal difference is 1.64 higher than expected. vs -4 GD
Clean Sheets
117% of games

Season totals cover all competitions and stages. Positions and points refer to each competition table.

Competition standings

There is no combined table across competitions. View each competition separately.

Bundesliga →

Squad 33 players · this season, all competitions · 4 out

Absences reported for the last match: 17 Oct 2026

Top scorer
S. Marino2 goals
Most assists
L. Curda1 assists
Best rated
N. Noll7.68 avg rating
Most minutes
N. Noll540 min
Key to the model
N. NollCore · weight 3.00
PlayerAgeAppsMinGARatingModel role
Goalkeepers
N. Noll 23 6 (6) 540 0 0 7.68 core
M. Schubert 28 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Defenders
T. Scheller 24 6 (6) 535 0 0 6.98 starter
J. ter Horst 24 6 (6) 532 0 0 6.69 starter
Jonah Sticker 22 5 (0) 57 0 1 6.66 rotation
C. Lippmann 20 2 (0) 23 0 0 6.20 depth
F. Götze 28 2 (0) 20 0 0 6.42 starter
Niklas Mohr — 1 (0) 1 0 0 — depth
N. Awortwie-Grant injured — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
M. Hoffmeier injured 27 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
A. Kitos — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Midfielders
S. Castañeda 21 6 (6) 540 1 0 6.94 starter
L. Curda 24 6 (6) 517 0 1 7.10 core
R. Obermair 30 6 (6) 513 0 0 6.67 starter
M. Hansen 22 6 (6) 494 0 0 6.98 starter
G. Vidović 22 6 (6) 485 0 0 6.57 starter
L. Ulrich 21 6 (6) 462 0 0 6.64 starter
T. Baack 27 3 (0) 56 0 0 6.58 rotation
O. Batista Meier 25 3 (0) 49 0 0 6.34 depth
Ruben Müller 21 1 (0) 15 0 0 6.61 rotation
Luka Djuric 23 1 (0) 13 0 0 6.20 depth
Luka Duric — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
T. Gayret injured — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
S. Klaas injured 28 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Albert Millgramm — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
Forwards
M. Pieringer 27 6 (5) 393 0 0 6.24 starter
S. Marino 22 6 (5) 351 2 0 6.84 starter
S. Tigges 28 6 (1) 229 2 1 7.15 rotation
Rayan Philippe 25 5 (1) 115 0 0 6.68 rotation
N. Bätzner 26 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
S. Michel 36 0 (0) 0 0 0 — rotation
K. Okpala — 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —
D. Zeitler 19 0 (0) 0 0 0 — —

Stats are this season in all competitions. Model role is how much the availability model weighs each player before the game with Hamburger SV: core, starter, rotation or depth, from several seasons of minutes and ratings.

Performance

Strength, recent form and playing style.

Strength Bundesliga · 18 clubs

L90 Strength16th of 18
38 Elo 1573 · World #147
Current Strength
38 With absences before 24 Oct: +0 Elo
Attack16th of 18
34 Scores 1.31 per match against an average top-five side
Defence16th of 18
33 Concedes 1.81 per match against an average top-five side

In forecast League average

L90 Strength comes from Elo; Attack and Defence from goals scored and conceded, expected goals (xG) and shots on target, all on fixed 0–100 scales shared by every league. These are the numbers the forecast uses.

Strong at both ends Defence first Attack first Struggling Attack → Defence → Bayern München: attack 96, defence 90, L90 Strength 94 Borussia Dortmund: attack 69, defence 80, L90 Strength 81 SC Freiburg: attack 63, defence 73, L90 Strength 64 Bayer Leverkusen: attack 87, defence 79, L90 Strength 79 FSV Mainz 05: attack 68, defence 56, L90 Strength 55 SV Elversberg: attack 44, defence 37, L90 Strength 42 RB Leipzig: attack 76, defence 53, L90 Strength 68 Werder Bremen: attack 56, defence 45, L90 Strength 43 Hamburger SV: attack 37, defence 43, L90 Strength 40 FC Augsburg: attack 72, defence 23, L90 Strength 50 Eintracht Frankfurt: attack 54, defence 37, L90 Strength 48 1.FC Köln: attack 36, defence 36, L90 Strength 34 VfB Stuttgart: attack 70, defence 58, L90 Strength 68 1899 Hoffenheim: attack 46, defence 43, L90 Strength 49 FC Schalke 04: attack 33, defence 50, L90 Strength 46 SC Paderborn 07: attack 34, defence 33, L90 Strength 38 Union Berlin: attack 42, defence 41, L90 Strength 39 Borussia Mönchengladbach: attack 34, defence 21, L90 Strength 36
Every Bundesliga club on the Attack and Defence scales. Dashed lines are the league average. Tap a crest to open that club.

Form last 5 for the index · last 6 listed

33
Form index · 15th of 18 in league
Points, last 5
4
Median top-5 club
6.0
Own forecasts
5.3 -1.3
Table16th L90 Strength16th Form15th

Table position in line with their strength.

Form compares points with what a median top-five club (L90 Strength 50) would take from the same fixtures, so wins over strong sides count for more; 50 is a typical run. "Own forecasts" is the gap to this club's pre-match expectations. Form is context: in our tests it did not improve the forecast.

  • D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts
  • D29 AugA · FSV Mainz 050–00.9 xPts

Trends last 6, all competitions

Scored 2/6
Clean sheet 1/6
Conceded 2+ 3/6
Over 2.5 3/6
Both teams scored 2/6

Playing style vs Bundesliga average

PADLeagueRank
Goals scored 0.83 1.84 16th
Goals conceded 1.50 1.84 5th
xG 0.90 1.75 18th
xG allowed 1.84 1.75 11th
Scored in 33% 76% 17th
Clean sheets 17% 24% 9th
PADLeagueRank
Shots 13.50 15.55 14th
Shots on target 4.25 5.77 16th
On target share 21% 35% 18th
Box share 58% 68% 17th
Conversion 6% 12% 18th
PADLeagueRank
Shots allowed 18.17 15.55 13th
On target allowed 6.33 5.71 12th
Blocks 6.33 4.49 2nd
Save rate 74% 66% 5th
PADLeagueRank
Possession 46% 50% 13th
Passes 443 455 10th
Pass accuracy 81% 81% 12th
PADLeagueRank
Fouls 10.50 11.43 7th
Fouls suffered 10.83 11.44 12th
Yellow cards 1.33 1.71 6th
Red cards 0.00 0.02 1st
This league season, per match · 6 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.
PADLeagueRank
Goals scored 1.10 1.84 17th
Goals conceded 1.20 1.74 3rd
xG 1.16 1.71 17th
xG allowed 1.69 1.62 11th
Scored in 50% 80% 17th
Clean sheets 30% 24% 7th
PADLeagueRank
Shots 14.50 14.87 10th
Shots on target 4.75 5.55 13th
On target share 26% 36% 18th
Box share 60% 67% 16th
Conversion 8% 12% 18th
PADLeagueRank
Shots allowed 16.00 14.13 15th
On target allowed 5.80 5.23 13th
Blocks 5.11 4.08 4th
Save rate 79% 66% 1st
PADLeagueRank
Possession 48% 51% 12th
Passes 451 455 8th
Pass accuracy 81% 82% 12th
PADLeagueRank
Fouls 10.80 10.89 8th
Fouls suffered 10.60 10.68 9th
Yellow cards 1.60 1.70 9th
Red cards 0.00 0.02 1st
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 games. Rank among 18 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.

Home and away this league season

Home1.00pts per game1-0-2 · 1.0–1.3 goals · 3 games
Away0.67pts per game0-2-1 · 0.7–1.7 goals · 3 games

Goal timing this league season · 6 games

1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 76-90

scored conceded, per 15 minutes

In forecastVia Att/DefContextLeague average

Possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Goals, xG and shots on target feed the Attack and Defence ratings. The rest describes how the team plays and does not change the forecast.

Team rankings Bundesliga · 6 games · rank of 18

Attack

GF 5 16th / 18
GF/G 0.83 16th / 18
xG/G 0.90 18th / 18
G − xG -0.07 12th / 18

Defence

GA 9 5th / 18
GA/G 1.50 5th / 18
xGA/G 1.84 11th / 18
xGA − GA +0.34 4th / 18

Overall

Pts 5 15th / 18
xPts 6.2 17th / 18
PPG 0.83 15th / 18
TR 6.88 10th / 18
GD -4 14th / 18
xGD -5.6 17th / 18
W 1 15th / 18
L 3 10th / 18

Scorelines

  • 0–0×1
  • 0–1×1
  • 0–3×1
  • 3–1×1
  • 0–2×1
  • 2–2×1

Goals per game both teams

17% 0
17% 1
17% 2
17% 3
33% 4
0% 5+

Totals club · league

Over 1.5
67%81%
Over 2.5
50%74%
Over 3.5
33%56%
Both scored
33%59%
Clean sheet
17%24%
Failed to score
67%24%
ClubLeague average

This league season only. xPts adds up our pre-match win and draw chances (pure EloLambda, the same numbers as Form). xG and TR come from match data and describe the season so far; none of these rankings change the forecast directly.